World Cup 2026

Trading the 2026 World Cup with Arrow-Debreu states and Portfolio Kelly to maximise expected log bankroll growth.

World Cup Outrights Trading

Just like I did for Euro 2020, I’m gonna trade the World Cup outrights using my simulation engine and Kelly, hopefully for some nice profits. Back then it all took a lot of time to collect market odds and re-optimise positions each day, time I do not have now. What drew me back was FIFA’s decision to extend the tournament to 48 teams and include the oh-so-chaotic best-third-place qualification for the knockout stages. It simply makes for a fantastically crazy and volatile tournament in terms of pricing. Prime trading conditions.

So I’ve automated most of the process (including posting daily updates here). The machinery fetches fresh outright odds from a few bookies I can still bet with and easily scrape, including Pinnacle but sadly excluding Betfair which isn’t available in Sweden anymore (yes I know that’s not exactly true), then runs the simulation engine off recent scores and finally spits out the recommended bets and stakes to re-optimise my portfolio. Just like last time I’m not gonna bore you with details on how the simulation engine works or even what my projected probabilities are, I’m just gonna show how I use them for actual betting. So that’s what each daily update is gonna look like: a summary of how my portfolio of bets have changed since the day before.

Something that was sub-optimal in my process the last time around was that I traded group outrights and the winner outright individually. It’s sub-optimal because they are highly correlated. It still worked out in the end but it’s something I have always wanted to fix so this time I have rebuilt the betting flow to use something called Arrow-Debreu which allows me to actually take the correlations into account in a very neat way. More on that below.

New for this time is also that I’ve expanded the number of markets to trade. With a fully automated process and the Arrow-Debreu addition I can now basically add any outright market my underlying simulation engine can support. And that is a lot, given how bookies tend to spew out betting options for tournaments like this. I could even have included any type of match betting like 1X2, Asian Handicap and Over/Under - anything related to how many goals teams score is doable - but I’ve limited myself to some fairly general markets available at my bookies:

• Winner
• Group Winner
• To Finish Last in the Group
• To Qualify (From the Group, i.e., Reach R32)
• To Reach R16/Quarter Final/Semi Final/Final

Most of these are available in Yes/No format which makes the portfolio optimiser very happy as it will have a smörgåsbord of betting options and possible ways to back or lay a certain team.

Arrow-Debreu Primer

So what is Arrow-Debreu?

The short version is that it’s a way to think about bets as claims on future states of the world. Sounds fancy, but for a World Cup group it’s very intuitive. Take a normal four-team group. There are 24 possible final finishing orders. Brazil-Morocco-Haiti-Scotland is one possible state. Morocco-Brazil-Scotland-Haiti is another. And so on.

An Arrow-Debreu bet, in its purest form, would pay out only if one exact state happens and lose otherwise. Most books might not offer those bets in that clean form, but that doesn’t matter. The useful trick is that every normal outright market can be broken down into a bundle of these states.

Brazil to win the group? That’s all states where Brazil finishes 1st.

Brazil to qualify? That’s all states where Brazil finishes 1st, 2nd, or maybe 3rd if they sneak through as one of the best third-place teams.

Brazil to reach the Quarter Final? That’s all full tournament paths where Brazil gets that far.

So instead of treating every bet as its own little thing, the model looks at the whole tournament as a big map of possible futures. Each available bet is then just a payoff pattern across those futures. That’s the important bit. Because once everything is expressed this way, the correlations are no longer some annoying side problem. They are baked into the payoff map.

Brazil winner, Brazil to reach the Final, and Brazil to qualify from the group are obviously related. If Brazil has a great tournament, several of them win together. If Brazil bombs out, several of them die together. A normal bet-by-bet Kelly approach handles that badly. It can easily overbet the same underlying opinion in five different disguises.

With the Arrow-Debreu setup, the portfolio optimiser sees that overlap directly. It knows which bets pay in the same futures and which bets protect against different futures. Then Kelly can do its actual job: choose the set of stakes that gives the best expected bankroll growth across the full tournament state space, not just the best-looking standalone edge.

That’s why I rebuilt the process this way. The point is not to sound clever. The point is to stop pretending that 200 correlated outrights are 200 independent bets. They are not. They are different ways of buying and selling pieces of the same World Cup future.

Day 1

Before revealing the portfolio as it stands just before kickoff, let’s go over the rules the optimiser is working with:

• The starting bankroll is set at 1000 units
• Stakes are whole units only, with a one-unit minimum
• The optimiser only ever considers a selection the model gives at least a 2% chance of landing
• We bet quarter Kelly, i.e., 1/4 of the stakes full Kelly would advise
• The available odds come from a set composite of bookies

Full Kelly is brutal when your probabilities are even slightly off, and a tournament model has no shortage of room to be off, so quarter-sizing trades away some potential growth for a far shallower drawdown. How much of the bankroll that leaves working is a consequence, not a setting: full Kelly here wants almost the whole bankroll in play right from the start, so 1/4 Kelly happens to land near a quarter deployed - that’s the prices talking, not a cap I set.

That scaling also interacts with the one-unit minimum. Once every stake is quartered, the long tail of tiny longshot bets that full Kelly likes to sprinkle around drops below a unit and is cut, with the freed money re-solved across what remains. What’s left is a shorter portfolio of whole-unit positions sitting where the edge per unit of risk is best.

Maybe surprisingly, the portfolio is light on outright Winner bets - they are just a few, all small. Winner currently have the highest bookie margin, so the edge there is the thinnest to begin with; winner outcomes are also rare even for the favourites, so any single Kelly stake is small and mostly prunes away under the quarter-sizing and the one-unit floor; and, in the spirit of the Arrow-Debreu picture above, backing a team to win is a thin, highly correlated slice of a future you can buy more cheaply and at higher probability through the qualify and reach-round markets. When the model likes a team’s run it has usually already expressed that earlier in the bracket, and the optimiser sees the overlap and declines to stack a redundant winner bet on top. I expect the optimiser to load up on more winner bets as we progress from the group stages.

Initial Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.650	28
Reach R16		United States	yes	2.250	28
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.350	26
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.750	23
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.606	14
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	4.000	11
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.650	11
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.620	10
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.727	9
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.000	8
Reach R16		Morocco	no	1.671	7
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	4.200	7
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.450	6
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.000	5
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.000	5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.100	5
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	12.000	5
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.610	4
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.950	3
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.750	3
Group Last	D	United States		8.950	3
Group Last	H	Uruguay		21.280	3
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.000	3
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.000	3
Winner		Germany		15.000	3
Winner		England		9.000	3
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.000	2
Group Last	L	Ghana		3.250	2
Group Winner	L	Panama		40.000	2
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.000	2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.000	2
Winner		Belgium		46.000	1

I think the above table is pretty self-explanatory, so I won’t comment any further on the individual selections in the portfolio for now. The real fun starts when the results begin to roll in. Below is what the optimiser expects our current portfolio to do to the bankroll: the expected log bankroll - the quantity Kelly is actually maximising - alongside the same figure in plain units, before any bets and after our initial optimisation.

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Available
Before	6.908	1000	0	1000
After	6.963	1057	247	753
Change	0.055	57	247	-247

Day 2

Below you can see the optimiser’s new selections after the first day of action. Following South Africa and Czechia’s defeats it goes aggressively after them to finish last in the group, but there is also some hedging going on with South Korea to finish last in the group and Czechia to reach the Quarter Finals.

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.660	42
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.000	10
Winner		Germany		17.000	7
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	12.000	4
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.000	4
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	9.000	3
Group Winner	L	Panama		40.000	2
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.000	2
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	13.000	2

The total portfolio and expected bankroll, which have increased 50 units since yesterday (mostly just by letting the optimiser bet again - it is restricted to 1/4 Kelly so besides the reaction to the results in Group A, it’s filling up on positions it wanted already yesterday) can be seen below.

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.650	28
Reach R16		United States	yes	2.250	28
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.350	26
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.750	23
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.606	14
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	4.000	11
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.650	11
Winner		Germany		16.400	10
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.620	10
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.000	10
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	12.000	9
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.727	9
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.000	8
Reach R16		Morocco	no	1.671	7
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	4.200	7
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.450	6
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.000	5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.100	5
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.610	4
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.000	4
Group Winner	L	Panama		40.000	4
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	9.000	3
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.000	3
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.000	3
Group Last	D	United States		8.950	3
Group Last	H	Uruguay		21.280	3
Winner		England		9.000	3
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.750	3
Group Last	L	Ghana		3.250	2
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.000	2
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.000	2
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.000	2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.000	2
Winner		Belgium		46.000	1

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Available
Before	6.963	1057	247	753
After	7.009	1107	436	564
Change	0.046	50	189	-189

Day 3

Day 3’s bets are again a split between reacting to the most recent results - the optimiser is backing USA and going against Paraguay - and refilling of earlier positions. We are still very light on Winner bets, only England, Germany and Belgium so far. The optimiser is also still seeing plenty of value and have already deployed over half of the bankroll just three days in.

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.833	45
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.500	25
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.350	18
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.250	7
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.625	6
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.000	5
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.200	5
Winner		Germany		17.000	5
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.750	3
Group Winner	L	Panama		45.000	3
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.000	3
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	4.200	3
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	12.000	3
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	6.200	3
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.700	2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.500	2
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.000	2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.000	2
Winner		England		9.000	2

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.993	73
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.350	44
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.724	29
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.650	28
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.500	25
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.000	15
Winner		Germany		16.600	15
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.606	14
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.946	14
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	12.000	12
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.650	11
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	4.200	10
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.620	10
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.727	9
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.000	8
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.250	7
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7
Reach R16		Morocco	no	1.671	7
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.000	7
Group Winner	L	Panama		42.143	7
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.450	6
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.640	6
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.000	5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.100	5
Winner		England		9.000	5
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.200	5
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.000	4
Group Last	H	Uruguay		21.280	3
Group Last	D	United States		8.950	3
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.750	3
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	9.000	3
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.000	3
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.000	3
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	6.200	3
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.000	2
Group Last	L	Ghana		3.250	2
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.000	2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.500	2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.000	2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.000	2
Winner		Belgium		46.000	1

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Available
Before	7.009	1107	436	564
After	7.055	1158	580	420
Change	0.046	51	144	-144

Day 4

It’s the same story as before - reacting to recent results and filling up on earlier positions. Notably, this is the first time our expectancy has taken a hit. With Türkiye losing to Australia, one of the largest positions in them reaching the Round of 16 has plummeted so far that not even refilling other +EV positions can recoup all of the lost expectancy. As a result, the optimiser hedges with a sizable stake on Türkiye to finish last in Group D.

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.00	25
Group Last	D	Australia		14.90	16
Reach QF		United States	yes	3.50	13
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.75	9
Winner		Germany		18.00	6
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	2.85	6
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	5.00	4
Winner		England		9.40	4
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.00	4
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.00	3
Winner		Argentina		12.00	3
Group Last	D	United States		80.00	3
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.50	3
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.00	2
Group Winner	L	Panama		45.00	1
Winner		Belgium		46.00	1
Winner		Brazil		12.00	1
Winner		Netherlands		23.00	1

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.993	73
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.350	44
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.724	29
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.650	28
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.000	25
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.500	25
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.870	23
Winner		Germany		17.000	21
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.000	18
Group Last	D	Australia		14.900	16
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.606	14
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	4.429	14
Reach QF		United States	yes	3.500	13
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	2.931	13
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	12.000	12
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.650	11
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.620	10
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.727	9
Winner		England		9.178	9
Group Winner	L	Panama		42.500	8
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.000	8
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.250	7
Reach R16		Morocco	no	1.671	7
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.000	7
Group Last	D	United States		44.475	6
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.450	6
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.640	6
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.000	5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.100	5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.000	5
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.200	5
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.000	4
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	6.200	3
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	9.000	3
Group Last	H	Uruguay		21.280	3
Winner		Argentina		12.000	3
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.750	3
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.500	3
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.000	2
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.000	2
Group Last	L	Ghana		3.250	2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.500	2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.000	2
Winner		Belgium		46.000	2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.000	2
Winner		Brazil		12.000	1
Winner		Netherlands		23.000	1

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Available
Before	7.055	1158	580	420
After	7.052	1155	685	315
Change	-0.003	-3	105	-105

Day 5

The number of bets and the stakes are slowing down now as we start to approach full bankroll deployment and the optimiser’s appetite is lesser after all the refills. Still, it continues to hedge the big position on Türkiye, now by directly laying them to reach the Round of 16.

With the new batch of bets, and results pushing the probabilities our way, the expected bankroll is growing again.

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	44
Group Last	D	Australia		14.90	9
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	3.25	8
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.00	5
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	14.91	4
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.00	3
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.00	2
Group Last	D	United States		80.00	2
Winner		Germany		16.00	2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.00	1

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.993	73
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.740	44
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.350	44
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.650	28
Group Last	D	Australia		14.900	25
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.500	25
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.000	25
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.870	23
Winner		Germany		16.913	23
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.000	20
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.606	14
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	4.429	14
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	2.931	13
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.000	13
Reach QF		United States	yes	3.500	13
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	12.000	12
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.650	11
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.620	10
Winner		England		9.178	9
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.727	9
Group Last	D	United States		53.356	8
Group Winner	L	Panama		42.500	8
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.000	7
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7
Reach R16		Morocco	no	1.671	7
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.250	7
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.450	6
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.640	6
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.100	5
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.200	5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.000	5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.000	5
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	14.910	4
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.000	4
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.000	3
Winner		Argentina		12.000	3
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	9.000	3
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.750	3
Group Last	H	Uruguay		21.280	3
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.500	3
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	6.200	3
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.000	2
Group Last	L	Ghana		3.250	2
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.000	2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.500	2
Winner		Belgium		46.000	2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.000	2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.000	2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.000	1
Winner		Brazil		12.000	1
Winner		Netherlands		23.000	1

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Available
Before	7.052	1155	685	315
After	7.083	1191	765	235
Change	0.031	36	80	-80

Day 6

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	26
Group Last	H	Uruguay		16.90	10
Group Last	D	Australia		14.90	7
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.00	6
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	14.91	2
Group Last	D	United States		80.00	1
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.00	1
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	18.50	1
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.00	1
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.00	1
Winner		Brazil		13.00	1

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.993	73
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.740	70
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.350	44
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37
Group Last	D	Australia		14.900	32
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.650	28
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.500	25
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.000	25
Winner		Germany		16.913	23
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.870	23
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.000	21
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.000	19
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.606	14
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	4.429	14
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	2.931	13
Reach QF		United States	yes	3.500	13
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.911	13
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	12.000	12
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.650	11
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.620	10
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.727	9
Winner		England		9.178	9
Group Winner	L	Panama		42.500	8
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.000	7
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7
Reach R16		Morocco	no	1.671	7
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.250	7
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.450	6
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.640	6
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	14.910	6
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.200	5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.100	5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.000	5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.000	5
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.000	4
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.000	4
Winner		Argentina		12.000	3
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	9.000	3
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.750	3
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	6.200	3
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.500	3
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.000	2
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.000	2
Group Last	L	Ghana		3.250	2
Winner		Belgium		46.000	2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.000	2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.500	2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.000	2
Winner		Brazil		12.500	2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.000	2
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	18.500	1
Winner		Netherlands		23.000	1

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Available
Before	7.083	1191	765	235
After	7.103	1216	822	178
Change	0.021	25	57	-57

Day 7

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Group Last	H	Uruguay		16.900	8
Reach R16		Austria	yes	3.400	8
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.600	7
Group Last	D	Australia		14.900	4
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.333	4
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	14.910	3
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.000	2
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.000	2
Group Winner	L	Panama		52.000	2
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.000	1
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.000	1
Winner		Brazil		13.500	1
Winner		Netherlands		26.000	1

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.993	73
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.740	70
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.350	44
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37
Group Last	D	Australia		14.900	36
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.650	28
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.000	27
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.500	25
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.870	23
Winner		Germany		16.913	23
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.000	22
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.000	21
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.526	21
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	4.429	14
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.606	14
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	2.931	13
Reach QF		United States	yes	3.500	13
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	12.000	12
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.650	11
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.620	10
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.400	10
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	14.910	9
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.727	9
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.259	9
Winner		England		9.178	9
Reach R16		Austria	yes	3.400	8
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.600	7
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.250	7
Reach R16		Morocco	no	1.671	7
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.000	7
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.640	6
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.450	6
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.100	5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.000	5
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.000	5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.000	5
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.000	4
Winner		Brazil		12.833	3
Winner		Argentina		12.000	3
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.750	3
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	6.200	3
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.500	3
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	9.000	3
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.000	2
Group Last	L	Ghana		3.250	2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.000	2
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.000	2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.500	2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.000	2
Winner		Belgium		46.000	2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.000	2
Winner		Netherlands		24.500	2
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	18.500	1

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Available
Before	7.103	1216	822	178
After	7.117	1232	866	134
Change	0.013	16	44	-44

Day 8

Matchday 1 is over but we still have a lot of group stage action left so with the 1000 unit bankroll nearing full deployment, I’ve decided to borrow against future winnings from the group stage bets. Expectency there is looking good but I’ve gone a fairly conservative route with just adding 250 units to the bankroll for now. With much more than that deployed on the group markets, I expect returns (even if we end up net losers) to cover it most of the time.

The larger bag of dry powder allows the optimiser to be a bit more aggressive now, including a nice stab at Ghana to finish last at long odds.

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Group Last	L	Ghana		66.000	11
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.500	11
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	3.000	8
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.727	7
Reach QF		United States	yes	3.500	7
Group Last	H	Uruguay		16.900	7
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	5
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	5.000	5
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.600	4
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	14.910	4
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.000	3
Reach R16		Austria	yes	3.350	3
Reach R16		Morocco	no	1.800	3
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.000	3
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.000	2
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.000	2
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.000	2
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	7.500	2
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	18.500	2
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.333	2
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.050	1
Winner		Brazil		13.500	1
Winner		Netherlands		26.000	1

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.993	73
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.740	70
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.350	44
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37
Group Last	D	Australia		14.900	36
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.665	35
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.000	30
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.369	28
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.500	25
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.000	24
Winner		Germany		16.913	23
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.870	23
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.000	22
Reach QF		United States	yes	3.500	20
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	4.579	19
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.606	14
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	14.910	13
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	2.931	13
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	12.000	12
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.650	11
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.600	11
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.500	11
Reach R16		Austria	yes	3.386	11
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.273	11
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.620	10
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.400	10
Reach R16		Morocco	no	1.710	10
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.727	9
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9
Winner		England		9.178	9
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	3.000	8
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.000	7
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.250	7
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.640	6
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.450	6
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.900	5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.000	5
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.000	5
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.100	5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.000	5
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.000	4
Winner		Brazil		13.000	4
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	18.500	3
Winner		Argentina		12.000	3
Winner		Netherlands		25.000	3
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	6.200	3
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.750	3
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	9.000	3
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.000	2
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.000	2
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.000	2
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.000	2
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.000	2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.500	2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.000	2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.000	2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.000	2
Winner		Belgium		46.000	2
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.050	1

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Available	of which borrowed
Before	7.117	1232	866	134	0
After	7.127	1245	962	288	250
Change	0.011	13	96	154	250

Day 9

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.800	19
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.640	14
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.890	8
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	6
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.727	4
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.500	4
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	3.000	4
Group Last	H	Uruguay		16.900	4
Winner		Germany		17.000	4
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.000	2
Reach R16		Austria	yes	3.350	2
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.000	1

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.740	70
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.350	44
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.672	39
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37
Group Last	D	Australia		14.900	36
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.311	32
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.000	30
Winner		Germany		16.926	27
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.500	25
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.000	24
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.870	23
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.674	23
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.000	22
Reach QF		United States	yes	3.500	20
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	4.579	19
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.500	15
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.606	14
Reach R16		Austria	yes	3.381	13
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	2.931	13
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	14.910	13
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	12.000	12
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	3.000	12
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.600	11
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.650	11
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.273	11
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.620	10
Reach R16		Morocco	no	1.710	10
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.400	10
Winner		England		9.178	9
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.890	8
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.250	7
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.000	7
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.450	6
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.640	6
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.000	5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.000	5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.100	5
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.900	5
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.000	5
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.000	4
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.000	4
Winner		Brazil		13.000	4
Winner		Argentina		12.000	3
Winner		Netherlands		25.000	3
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	6.200	3
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	9.000	3
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.000	3
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	18.500	3
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.750	3
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.000	2
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.000	2
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.000	2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.500	2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.000	2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.000	2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.000	2
Winner		Belgium		46.000	2
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.050	1

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Available	of which borrowed
Before	7.127	1245	962	288	250
After	7.145	1268	1034	216	250
Change	0.018	23	72	-72	0

Day 10

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.070	33
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.727	20
Reach QF		United States	yes	2.850	14
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	4.000	10
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	3.000	9
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.333	6
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.640	5
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.500	5
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	3.500	4
Group Last	H	Uruguay		16.900	1

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake	Net
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.691	59
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45
Reach R16		Morocco	no	1.986	43
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37
Reach QF		United States	yes	3.232	34
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.298	33
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	4.379	29
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.668	28
Winner		Germany		16.926	27
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.0	24
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.87	23
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.0	22
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	3.0	21
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.5	20
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.294	17
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.606	14
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	2.931	13
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	14.91	13
Reach R16		Austria	yes	3.381	13
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	12.0	12
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.65	11
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.6	11
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.4	10
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.62	10
Winner		England		9.178	9
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.89	8
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.0	7
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.25	7
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	4.657	7
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.64	6
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.45	6
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.9	5
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.0	5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.0	5
Winner		Brazil		13.0	4
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.0	4
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.0	4
Winner		Argentina		12.0	3
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	18.5	3
Winner		Netherlands		25.0	3
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	9.0	3
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.0	3
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.75	3
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.0	2
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.0	2
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.0	2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.5	2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.0	2
Winner		Belgium		46.0	2
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.05	1
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.0	30	60
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	70	52
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.0	2	-2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.0	2	-2
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.0	5	-5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.1	5	-5
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9	-9
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.5	25	-25
Group Last	D	Australia		14.9	36	-36
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.35	44	-44
		Realised (settled)			228	-16

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Returned	Available	of which borrowed
Before	7.145	1268	1034	0	216	250
After	7.127	1246	1141	212	321	250
Change	-0.018	-22	107	212	105	0

Day 11

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.070	50
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.750	11
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.751	7
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.900	5
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	12.800	4
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.640	3

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake	Net
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.031	93
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.691	59
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37
Reach QF		United States	yes	3.232	34
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.298	33
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.665	31
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.589	31
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	4.379	29
Winner		Germany		16.926	27
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.0	24
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.87	23
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.0	22
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	3.0	21
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.654	21
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.294	17
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.12	15
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	2.931	13
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13
Reach R16		Austria	yes	3.381	13
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.894	13
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	14.91	13
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	12.0	12
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.65	11
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.62	10
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.4	10
Winner		England		9.178	9
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.0	7
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.25	7
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	4.657	7
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.45	6
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.64	6
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.0	5
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.9	5
Winner		Brazil		13.0	4
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.0	4
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.0	4
Winner		Argentina		12.0	3
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	18.5	3
Winner		Netherlands		25.0	3
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	9.0	3
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.0	3
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.75	3
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.0	2
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.0	2
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.0	2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.5	2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.0	2
Winner		Belgium		46.0	2
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.05	1
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.0	30	60
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	70	52
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.0	2	-2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.0	2	-2
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.0	5	-5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.1	5	-5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.0	5	-5
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9	-9
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.5	25	-25
Group Last	D	Australia		14.9	36	-36
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.35	44	-44
		Realised (settled)			233	-21

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Returned	Available	of which borrowed
Before	7.127	1246	1141	212	321	250
After	7.129	1248	1221	212	241	250
Change	0.002	2	80	0	-80	0

Day 12

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.07	28
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	2.85	10
Reach QF		United States	yes	2.54	10
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	4.23	8
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	20.02	3
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	8.00	1

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake	Net
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.04	121
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.691	59
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45
Reach QF		United States	yes	3.075	44
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.298	33
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.589	31
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.665	31
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	2.952	31
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	4.379	29
Winner		Germany		16.926	27
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.0	24
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.87	23
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.0	22
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.426	21
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.654	21
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.294	17
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	15.868	16
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.12	15
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.894	13
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13
Reach R16		Austria	yes	3.381	13
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	12.0	12
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.65	11
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.62	10
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.4	10
Winner		England		9.178	9
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.0	7
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	4.657	7
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.25	7
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.45	6
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.64	6
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.0	5
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.9	5
Winner		Brazil		13.0	4
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	8.75	4
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.0	4
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.0	4
Winner		Netherlands		25.0	3
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.0	3
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	18.5	3
Winner		Argentina		12.0	3
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.75	3
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.0	2
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.0	2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.5	2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.0	2
Winner		Belgium		46.0	2
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.05	1
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.0	30	60
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	70	52
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.0	2	-2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.0	2	-2
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.0	5	-5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.0	5	-5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.1	5	-5
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9	-9
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.5	25	-25
Group Last	D	Australia		14.9	36	-36
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.35	44	-44
		Realised (settled)			235	-23

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Returned	Available	of which borrowed
Before	7.129	1248	1221	212	241	250
After	7.161	1288	1281	212	181	250
Change	0.031	40	60	0	-60	0

Day 13

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.07	18
Reach QF		United States	yes	2.50	12
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	2.60	4
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	4.35	4
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	20.02	4
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	9.00	3
Winner		Germany		17.50	1

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake	Net
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.044	139
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.691	59
Reach QF		United States	yes	2.952	56
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	2.911	35
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.298	33
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	4.376	33
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.665	31
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.589	31
Winner		Germany		16.946	28
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.0	24
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.87	23
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.0	22
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.426	21
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.654	21
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	16.698	20
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.294	17
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.894	13
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13
Reach R16		Austria	yes	3.381	13
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	12.0	12
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.65	11
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.62	10
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.4	10
Winner		England		9.178	9
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.0	7
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	4.657	7
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	8.857	7
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.25	7
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.64	6
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.45	6
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.9	5
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.0	5
Winner		Brazil		13.0	4
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.0	4
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.0	4
Winner		Netherlands		25.0	3
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.0	3
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	18.5	3
Winner		Argentina		12.0	3
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.75	3
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.0	2
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.0	2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.0	2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.5	2
Winner		Belgium		46.0	2
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.05	1
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.0	30	60
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	70	52
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.0	2	-2
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.0	2	-2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.0	2	-2
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.0	5	-5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.1	5	-5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.0	5	-5
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9	-9
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.12	15	-15
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.5	25	-25
Group Last	D	Australia		14.9	36	-36
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.35	44	-44
		Realised (settled)			250	-38

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Returned	Available	of which borrowed
Before	7.161	1288	1281	212	181	250
After	7.149	1272	1327	212	135	250
Change	-0.012	-16	46	0	-46	0

Day 14

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.640	11
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.727	8
Reach QF		France	no	2.600	5
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	9.000	4
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	20.020	3
Winner		Brazil		16.500	2

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake	Net
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.044	139
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.695	67
Reach QF		United States	yes	2.952	56
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.659	42
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	2.911	35
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.298	33
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	4.376	33
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.589	31
Winner		Germany		16.946	28
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.0	24
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.87	23
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	17.132	23
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.0	22
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.426	21
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.654	21
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.294	17
Reach R16		Austria	yes	3.381	13
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.894	13
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	12.0	12
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.65	11
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	8.909	11
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.62	10
Winner		England		9.178	9
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	4.657	7
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.0	7
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.25	7
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.45	6
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.64	6
Winner		Brazil		14.167	6
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.0	5
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.9	5
Reach QF		France	no	2.6	5
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.0	4
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.0	4
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	18.5	3
Winner		Netherlands		25.0	3
Winner		Argentina		12.0	3
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.75	3
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.0	2
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.0	2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.0	2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.5	2
Winner		Belgium		46.0	2
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.05	1
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.0	30	60
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	70	52
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.0	2	-2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.0	2	-2
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.0	3	-3
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.1	5	-5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.0	5	-5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.0	5	-5
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9	-9
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.4	10	-10
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13	-13
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.12	15	-15
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.5	25	-25
Group Last	D	Australia		14.9	36	-36
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.35	44	-44
		Realised (settled)			276	-64

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Returned	Available	of which borrowed
Before	7.149	1272	1327	212	135	250
After	7.115	1230	1360	212	102	250
Change	-0.034	-42	33	0	-33	0

Day 15

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.300	25
Reach R16		Ivory Coast	no	1.540	22
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.727	14
Reach QF		France	no	2.600	6
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	13.000	4
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.650	4
Winner		Brazil		16.000	3

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake	Net
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.044	139
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.701	81
Reach QF		United States	yes	2.952	56
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.659	42
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	2.911	35
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	4.376	33
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.298	33
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.589	31
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.348	28
Winner		Germany		16.946	28
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	16.52	27
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.654	25
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.0	24
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.87	23
Reach R16		Ivory Coast	no	1.54	22
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.426	21
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.294	17
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.894	13
Reach R16		Austria	yes	3.381	13
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	12.0	12
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	8.909	11
Reach QF		France	no	2.6	11
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.65	11
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.62	10
Winner		England		9.178	9
Winner		Brazil		14.778	9
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.0	7
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.25	7
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	4.657	7
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.9	5
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.0	5
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.0	4
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.0	4
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	18.5	3
Winner		Netherlands		25.0	3
Winner		Argentina		12.0	3
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.0	2
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.0	2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.0	2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.5	2
Winner		Belgium		46.0	2
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.05	1
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45	166
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.0	30	60
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	70	52
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.0	2	-2
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.0	2	-2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.0	2	-2
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.0	3	-3
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.1	5	-5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.0	5	-5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.0	5	-5
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.45	6	-6
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.64	6	-6
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7	-7
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9	-9
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.4	10	-10
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13	-13
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.12	15	-15
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.0	22	-22
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.5	25	-25
Group Last	D	Australia		14.9	36	-36
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.35	44	-44
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113	-113
		Realised (settled)			475	-52

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Returned	Available	of which borrowed
Before	7.115	1230	1360	212	102	250
After	7.147	1271	1438	422	234	250
Change	0.032	41	78	210	132	0

Day 16

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Reach R16		Ghana	no	1.370	23
Reach R16		Morocco	yes	2.625	10
To Qualify	L	Croatia	no	11.500	8
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.600	7
Winner		Germany		21.000	4
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	17.000	3
Reach QF		France	no	2.600	2
Reach QF		South Korea	yes	26.000	1

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake	Net
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.044	139
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.701	81
Reach QF		United States	yes	2.952	56
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.659	42
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	2.911	35
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.298	33
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	4.376	33
Winner		Germany		17.453	32
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.589	31
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	16.568	30
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.348	28
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.654	25
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.383	24
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.0	24
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.87	23
Reach R16		Ghana	no	1.37	23
Reach R16		Ivory Coast	no	1.54	22
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.426	21
Reach R16		Austria	yes	3.381	13
Reach QF		France	no	2.6	13
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.894	13
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	12.0	12
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.65	11
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	8.909	11
Reach R16		Morocco	yes	2.625	10
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.62	10
Winner		Brazil		14.778	9
Winner		England		9.178	9
To Qualify	L	Croatia	no	11.5	8
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.0	7
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.25	7
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	4.657	7
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.9	5
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.0	4
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.0	4
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	18.5	3
Winner		Argentina		12.0	3
Winner		Netherlands		25.0	3
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.0	2
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.0	2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.0	2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.5	2
Winner		Belgium		46.0	2
Reach QF		South Korea	yes	26.0	1
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.05	1
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45	166
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.0	30	60
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	70	52
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.0	2	-2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.0	2	-2
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.0	3	-3
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.1	5	-5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.0	5	-5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.0	5	-5
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.0	5	-5
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.64	6	-6
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.45	6	-6
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7	-7
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9	-9
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.4	10	-10
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13	-13
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.12	15	-15
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.0	22	-22
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.5	25	-25
Group Last	D	Australia		14.9	36	-36
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.35	44	-44
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113	-113
		Realised (settled)			480	-57

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Returned	Available	of which borrowed
Before	7.147	1271	1438	422	234	250
After	7.115	1230	1496	422	176	250
Change	-0.033	-41	58	0	-58	0

Day 17

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.533	36
Reach R16		Australia	yes	2.750	6
Reach Final		Switzerland	yes	34.000	2
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.500	2
Winner		Belgium		71.000	2
Winner		Brazil		15.000	2
Reach R16		Morocco	yes	2.620	1
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	9.000	1

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake	Net
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.044	139
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.701	81
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.601	78
Reach QF		United States	yes	2.952	56
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	2.911	35
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	4.376	33
Winner		Germany		17.453	32
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.589	31
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	16.568	30
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.348	28
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.654	25
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.383	24
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.0	24
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.87	23
Reach R16		Ghana	no	1.37	23
Reach R16		Ivory Coast	no	1.54	22
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.426	21
Reach QF		France	no	2.6	13
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.894	13
Reach R16		Austria	yes	3.381	13
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	12.0	12
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	8.917	12
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11
Reach R16		Morocco	yes	2.625	11
Winner		Brazil		14.818	11
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.65	11
Winner		England		9.178	9
To Qualify	L	Croatia	no	11.5	8
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.0	7
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	4.657	7
Reach R16		Australia	yes	2.75	6
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.9	5
Winner		Belgium		58.5	4
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.25	4
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.0	4
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.0	4
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	18.5	3
Winner		Argentina		12.0	3
Winner		Netherlands		25.0	3
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.0	2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.5	2
Reach Final		Switzerland	yes	34.0	2
Reach QF		South Korea	yes	26.0	1
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.05	1
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45	166
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.0	30	60
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	70	52
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.25	7	9
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.62	10	6
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.0	2	-2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.0	2	-2
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.0	2	-2
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.0	3	-3
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.0	5	-5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.0	5	-5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.1	5	-5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.0	5	-5
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.45	6	-6
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.64	6	-6
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7	-7
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9	-9
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.4	10	-10
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13	-13
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.12	15	-15
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.0	22	-22
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.5	25	-25
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.298	33	-33
Group Last	D	Australia		14.9	36	-36
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.35	44	-44
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113	-113
		Realised (settled)			532	-77

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Returned	Available	of which borrowed
Before	7.115	1230	1496	422	176	250
After	7.073	1180	1548	454	156	250
Change	-0.042	-50	52	32	-20	0

Day 18

The group stage is finished and I should probably say something about the results. We ended up losing 87 units from 542 units staked, -16% ROI. Not good but no disaster either. There was a lot of volatility and plenty of bets could easily have gone our way instead of losing.

Our expectancy has obviously taken a hit as well but the model and optimiser is still expecting some positive returns, right now sitting at +137 units from our initial 1000 unit bankroll, or an 8.6% ROI on our staked 1587 units. Not bad, if that would be the actual outcome.

But that’s if we stopped betting right now. We obviously don’t wanna do that so below are today’s selections:

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Reach R16		Morocco	yes	2.50	10
Winner		Germany		26.00	6
Reach Final		Argentina	yes	3.25	5
Winner		Brazil		15.00	4
Winner		England		9.00	3
Reach R16		Algeria	yes	2.87	3
Winner		Spain		8.00	3
Reach QF		Algeria	yes	12.93	2
Reach Final		Switzerland	yes	34.00	2
Reach R16		Ghana	yes	4.17	1

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake	Net
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.044	139
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.701	81
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.601	78
Reach QF		United States	yes	2.952	56
Winner		Germany		18.803	38
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	2.911	35
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	4.376	33
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.589	31
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	16.568	30
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.348	28
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.654	25
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.0	24
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.383	24
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.87	23
Reach R16		Ghana	no	1.37	23
Reach R16		Ivory Coast	no	1.54	22
Reach R16		Morocco	yes	2.565	21
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.426	21
Winner		Brazil		14.867	15
Reach QF		France	no	2.6	13
Reach R16		Austria	yes	3.381	13
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.894	13
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	8.917	12
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	12.0	12
Winner		England		9.133	12
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.65	11
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	4.657	7
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.0	7
Reach R16		Australia	yes	2.75	6
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.9	5
Reach Final		Argentina	yes	3.25	5
Winner		Belgium		58.5	4
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.25	4
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.0	4
Reach Final		Switzerland	yes	34.0	4
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.0	4
Reach R16		Algeria	yes	2.87	3
Winner		Spain		8.0	3
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	18.5	3
Winner		Netherlands		25.0	3
Winner		Argentina		12.0	3
Reach QF		Algeria	yes	12.93	2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.0	2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.5	2
Reach R16		Ghana	yes	4.17	1
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45	166
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.0	30	60
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	70	52
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.25	7	9
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.62	10	6
Reach QF		South Korea	yes	26.0	1	-1
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.05	1	-1
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.0	2	-2
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.0	2	-2
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.0	2	-2
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.0	3	-3
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.0	5	-5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.1	5	-5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.0	5	-5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.0	5	-5
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.64	6	-6
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.45	6	-6
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7	-7
To Qualify	L	Croatia	no	11.5	8	-8
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9	-9
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.4	10	-10
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13	-13
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.12	15	-15
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.0	22	-22
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.5	25	-25
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.298	33	-33
Group Last	D	Australia		14.9	36	-36
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.35	44	-44
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113	-113
		Realised (settled)			542	-87

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Returned	Available	of which borrowed
Before	7.073	1180	1548	454	156	250
After	7.036	1137	1587	454	117	250
Change	-0.037	-43	39	0	-39	0

Day 19

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Reach R16		Algeria	yes	2.84	11
Reach R16		Morocco	yes	2.37	9
Winner		Spain		8.50	4
Reach R16		Austria	yes	8.00	3
Reach QF		Canada	yes	3.48	2
Winner		England		9.00	2
Winner		Brazil		15.00	2
Reach R16		Belgium	no	2.52	1
Winner		Argentina		6.00	1

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake	Net
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.044	139
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.701	81
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.601	78
Reach QF		United States	yes	2.952	56
Winner		Germany		18.803	38
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	2.911	35
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	4.376	33
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.589	31
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	16.568	30
Reach R16		Morocco	yes	2.507	30
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.348	28
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.654	25
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.0	24
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.383	24
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.87	23
Reach R16		Ghana	no	1.37	23
Reach R16		Ivory Coast	no	1.54	22
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.426	21
Winner		Brazil		14.882	17
Reach R16		Austria	yes	4.247	16
Winner		England		9.114	14
Reach R16		Algeria	yes	2.846	14
Reach QF		France	no	2.6	13
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	12.0	12
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	8.917	12
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.65	11
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.0	7
Winner		Spain		8.286	7
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	4.657	7
Reach R16		Australia	yes	2.75	6
Reach Final		Argentina	yes	3.25	5
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.9	5
Winner		Belgium		58.5	4
Winner		Argentina		10.5	4
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.0	4
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.25	4
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.0	4
Reach Final		Switzerland	yes	34.0	4
Winner		Netherlands		25.0	3
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	18.5	3
Reach QF		Algeria	yes	12.93	2
Reach QF		Canada	yes	3.48	2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.5	2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.0	2
Reach R16		Belgium	no	2.52	1
Reach R16		Ghana	yes	4.17	1
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45	166
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.0	30	60
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	70	52
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.894	13	12
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.25	7	9
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.62	10	6
Reach QF		South Korea	yes	26.0	1	-1
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.05	1	-1
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.0	2	-2
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.0	2	-2
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.0	2	-2
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.0	3	-3
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.0	5	-5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.1	5	-5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.0	5	-5
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.0	5	-5
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.64	6	-6
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.45	6	-6
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7	-7
To Qualify	L	Croatia	no	11.5	8	-8
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9	-9
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.4	10	-10
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13	-13
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.12	15	-15
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.0	22	-22
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.5	25	-25
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.298	33	-33
Group Last	D	Australia		14.9	36	-36
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.35	44	-44
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113	-113
		Realised (settled)			555	-75

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Returned	Available	of which borrowed
Before	7.036	1137	1587	454	117	250
After	7.032	1132	1622	479	107	250
Change	-0.004	-5	35	25	-10	0

Day 20

The bankroll took some huge hits last night with some of our biggest positions - backing Germany and laying Morocco - both losing, both from penalty shootouts. Not good. So we are now all of a sudden expecting a loss, but the optimiser has some dry powder left to try to salvage the situation.

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Reach R16		Algeria	yes	2.78	18
Reach QF		Canada	yes	3.28	7
Reach SF		Brazil	yes	2.78	6
Reach Final		Brazil	yes	5.23	5
Reach R16		Senegal	yes	2.38	5
Reach SF		Morocco	no	1.26	5
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	30.72	4
Reach R16		Ghana	yes	4.51	4
Winner		Spain		8.00	4
Reach SF		Sweden	yes	33.66	2
Reach QF		Sweden	yes	15.90	2
Winner		Brazil		11.00	2

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake	Net
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.701	81
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.601	78
Reach QF		United States	yes	2.952	56
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	2.911	35
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	4.376	33
Reach R16		Algeria	yes	2.809	32
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.589	31
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	16.568	30
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.87	23
Reach R16		Ghana	no	1.37	23
Reach R16		Ivory Coast	no	1.54	22
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.426	21
Winner		Brazil		14.474	19
Reach R16		Austria	yes	4.247	16
Winner		England		9.114	14
Reach QF		France	no	2.6	13
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	8.917	12
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	12.0	12
Winner		Spain		8.182	11
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11
Reach QF		Canada	yes	3.324	9
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.0	7
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	25.483	7
Reach SF		Brazil	yes	2.78	6
Reach R16		Australia	yes	2.75	6
Reach R16		Senegal	yes	2.38	5
Reach SF		Morocco	no	1.26	5
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.9	5
Reach Final		Brazil	yes	5.23	5
Reach Final		Argentina	yes	3.25	5
Reach R16		Ghana	yes	4.442	5
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.0	4
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.25	4
Winner		Belgium		58.5	4
Reach Final		Switzerland	yes	34.0	4
Winner		Argentina		10.5	4
Reach QF		Algeria	yes	12.93	2
Reach QF		Sweden	yes	15.9	2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.0	2
Reach SF		Sweden	yes	33.66	2
Reach R16		Belgium	no	2.52	1
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45	166
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.0	30	60
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	70	52
Reach R16		Morocco	yes	2.507	30	45
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	4.657	7	26
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.654	25	16
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.894	13	12
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.25	7	9
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.62	10	6
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.05	1	-1
Reach QF		South Korea	yes	26.0	1	-1
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.0	2	-2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.5	2	-2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.0	2	-2
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.0	2	-2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.0	2	-2
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.0	3	-3
Winner		Netherlands		25.0	3	-3
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.0	4	-4
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.0	5	-5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.1	5	-5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.0	5	-5
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.0	5	-5
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.45	6	-6
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.64	6	-6
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7	-7
To Qualify	L	Croatia	no	11.5	8	-8
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9	-9
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.4	10	-10
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.65	11	-11
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13	-13
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.12	15	-15
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.0	22	-22
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.0	24	-24
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.383	24	-24
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.5	25	-25
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.348	28	-28
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.298	33	-33
Group Last	D	Australia		14.9	36	-36
Winner		Germany		18.803	38	-38
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.35	44	-44
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113	-113
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.044	139	-139
		Realised (settled)			890	-261

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Returned	Available	of which borrowed
Before	7.032	1132	1622	479	107	250
After	6.819	915	1686	628	192	250
Change	-0.213	-217	64	149	85	0

Day 21

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Reach SF		Morocco	no	1.25	21
Reach R16		Switzerland	no	2.82	11
Reach R16		Colombia	no	4.75	4
Reach QF		Norway	yes	2.95	4
Reach R16		Cape Verde	yes	13.00	3
Winner		Spain		9.00	3
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	11.00	3
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	5.45	2
Reach SF		Paraguay	yes	29.00	2
Winner		Brazil		13.00	2
Reach R16		DR Congo	yes	7.67	1

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake	Net
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.701	81
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.601	78
Reach QF		United States	yes	2.952	56
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	2.911	35
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	4.376	33
Reach R16		Algeria	yes	2.809	32
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.589	31
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	16.568	30
Reach SF		Morocco	no	1.252	26
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.996	25
Reach R16		Ghana	no	1.37	23
Winner		Brazil		14.333	21
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.426	21
Reach R16		Austria	yes	4.247	16
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	11.8	15
Winner		Spain		8.357	14
Winner		England		9.114	14
Reach QF		France	no	2.6	13
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	8.917	12
Reach R16		Switzerland	no	2.82	11
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11
Reach QF		Canada	yes	3.324	9
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.0	7
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	25.483	7
Reach SF		Brazil	yes	2.78	6
Reach R16		Australia	yes	2.75	6
Reach Final		Argentina	yes	3.25	5
Reach Final		Brazil	yes	5.23	5
Reach R16		Senegal	yes	2.38	5
Reach R16		Ghana	yes	4.442	5
Winner		Argentina		10.5	4
Reach Final		Switzerland	yes	34.0	4
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.0	4
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.25	4
Winner		Belgium		58.5	4
Reach QF		Norway	yes	2.95	4
Reach R16		Colombia	no	4.75	4
Reach R16		Cape Verde	yes	13.0	3
Reach SF		Paraguay	yes	29.0	2
Reach QF		Algeria	yes	12.93	2
Reach R16		Belgium	no	2.52	1
Reach R16		DR Congo	yes	7.67	1
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45	166
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.0	30	60
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	70	52
Reach R16		Morocco	yes	2.507	30	45
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	4.657	7	26
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.654	25	16
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.894	13	12
Reach R16		Ivory Coast	no	1.54	22	12
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.25	7	9
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.62	10	6
Reach QF		South Korea	yes	26.0	1	-1
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.05	1	-1
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Sweden	yes	15.9	2	-2
Reach SF		Sweden	yes	33.66	2	-2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.5	2	-2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.0	2	-2
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.0	2	-2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.0	2	-2
Winner		Netherlands		25.0	3	-3
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.0	3	-3
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.0	4	-4
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.9	5	-5
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.0	5	-5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.0	5	-5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.1	5	-5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.0	5	-5
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.45	6	-6
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.64	6	-6
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7	-7
To Qualify	L	Croatia	no	11.5	8	-8
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9	-9
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.4	10	-10
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.65	11	-11
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13	-13
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.12	15	-15
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.0	22	-22
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.0	24	-24
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.383	24	-24
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.5	25	-25
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.348	28	-28
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.298	33	-33
Group Last	D	Australia		14.9	36	-36
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37	-37
Winner		Germany		18.803	38	-38
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.35	44	-44
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113	-113
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.044	139	-139
		Realised (settled)			960	-297

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Returned	Available	of which borrowed
Before	6.819	915	1686	628	192	250
After	6.766	868	1742	662	170	250
Change	-0.052	-47	56	34	-22	0

Day 22

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Reach SF		Morocco	no	1.25	53
Reach QF		Argentina	yes	1.24	14
Reach R16		Switzerland	no	2.82	10
Reach Final		France	no	2.09	8
Reach QF		Brazil	no	2.95	7
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	6.96	6
Reach R16		Austria	yes	6.90	5
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	11.00	4
Reach R16		Colombia	no	4.75	3
Reach R16		Cape Verde	yes	13.04	3
Winner		Brazil		13.00	3
Reach QF		Spain	no	2.28	3
Winner		Spain		9.00	3
Reach SF		Paraguay	yes	34.00	2

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake	Net
Reach SF		Morocco	no	1.251	79
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.601	78
Reach QF		United States	yes	2.952	56
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	2.911	35
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	4.376	33
Reach R16		Algeria	yes	2.809	32
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.589	31
Winner		Brazil		14.167	24
Reach R16		Ghana	no	1.37	23
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.426	21
Reach R16		Switzerland	no	2.82	21
Reach R16		Austria	yes	4.879	21
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	11.632	19
Winner		Spain		8.471	17
Winner		England		9.114	14
Reach QF		Argentina	yes	1.24	14
Reach QF		France	no	2.6	13
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	8.917	12
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.076	10
Reach QF		Canada	yes	3.324	9
Reach Final		France	no	2.09	8
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.0	7
Reach QF		Brazil	no	2.95	7
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	25.483	7
Reach R16		Colombia	no	4.75	7
Reach SF		Brazil	yes	2.78	6
Reach R16		Australia	yes	2.75	6
Reach R16		Cape Verde	yes	13.02	6
Reach Final		Brazil	yes	5.23	5
Reach Final		Argentina	yes	3.25	5
Reach R16		Ghana	yes	4.442	5
Winner		Argentina		10.5	4
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.0	4
Reach QF		Norway	yes	2.95	4
Reach SF		Paraguay	yes	31.5	4
Winner		Belgium		58.5	4
Reach Final		Switzerland	yes	34.0	4
Reach QF		Spain	no	2.28	3
Reach QF		Algeria	yes	12.93	2
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45	166
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92	88
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.0	30	60
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.701	81	57
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	70	52
Reach R16		Morocco	yes	2.507	30	45
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	4.657	7	26
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.654	25	16
Reach R16		Ivory Coast	no	1.54	22	12
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.894	13	12
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.25	7	9
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.62	10	6
Reach R16		DR Congo	yes	7.67	1	-1
Reach R16		Belgium	no	2.52	1	-1
Reach QF		South Korea	yes	26.0	1	-1
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.05	1	-1
Reach QF		Sweden	yes	15.9	2	-2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.0	2	-2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.0	2	-2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.5	2	-2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.0	2	-2
Reach SF		Sweden	yes	33.66	2	-2
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.0	2	-2
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.0	2	-2
Winner		Netherlands		25.0	3	-3
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.0	3	-3
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.0	4	-4
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.9	5	-5
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.0	5	-5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.0	5	-5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.0	5	-5
Reach R16		Senegal	yes	2.38	5	-5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.1	5	-5
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.45	6	-6
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.64	6	-6
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7	-7
To Qualify	L	Croatia	no	11.5	8	-8
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9	-9
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.4	10	-10
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.65	11	-11
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13	-13
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.12	15	-15
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.0	22	-22
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.0	24	-24
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.383	24	-24
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.5	25	-25
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.996	25	-25
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.348	28	-28
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	16.568	30	-30
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.298	33	-33
Group Last	D	Australia		14.9	36	-36
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37	-37
Winner		Germany		18.803	38	-38
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.35	44	-44
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113	-113
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.044	139	-139
		Realised (settled)			1195	-214

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Returned	Available	of which borrowed
Before	6.766	868	1742	662	170	250
After	6.847	941	1866	979	363	250
Change	0.081	73	124	317	193	0

Day 23

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Reach SF		Morocco	no	1.25	38
Reach QF		Argentina	yes	1.24	25
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	2.20	14
Reach QF		Spain	no	2.98	12
Reach Final		Spain	yes	4.20	7
Winner		Brazil		13.49	3
Reach QF		Brazil	no	2.95	2
Reach SF		Paraguay	yes	34.00	2
Winner		Belgium		81.00	2
Winner		Switzerland		101.00	2

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake	Net
Reach SF		Morocco	no	1.25	117
Reach QF		United States	yes	2.952	56
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	3.728	47
Reach QF		Argentina	yes	1.24	39
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	2.911	35
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.589	31
Winner		Brazil		14.091	27
Reach R16		Ghana	no	1.37	23
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.426	21
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	11.632	19
Winner		Spain		8.471	17
Reach QF		Spain	no	2.84	15
Winner		England		9.114	14
Reach QF		France	no	2.6	13
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	8.917	12
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.076	10
Reach QF		Brazil	no	2.95	9
Reach QF		Canada	yes	3.324	9
Reach Final		France	no	2.09	8
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	25.483	7
Reach Final		Spain	yes	4.2	7
Reach R16		Colombia	no	4.75	7
Reach SF		Paraguay	yes	32.333	6
Reach R16		Cape Verde	yes	13.02	6
Reach SF		Brazil	yes	2.78	6
Reach R16		Australia	yes	2.75	6
Winner		Belgium		66.0	6
Reach Final		Argentina	yes	3.25	5
Reach Final		Brazil	yes	5.23	5
Reach R16		Ghana	yes	4.442	5
Reach Final		Switzerland	yes	34.0	4
Reach QF		Norway	yes	2.95	4
Winner		Argentina		10.5	4
Winner		Switzerland		101.0	2
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45	166
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92	88
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.0	30	60
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.701	81	57
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	70	52
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.601	78	47
Reach R16		Morocco	yes	2.507	30	45
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	4.657	7	26
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.654	25	16
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.894	13	12
Reach R16		Ivory Coast	no	1.54	22	12
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.25	7	9
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.62	10	6
Reach R16		Belgium	no	2.52	1	-1
Reach R16		DR Congo	yes	7.67	1	-1
Reach QF		South Korea	yes	26.0	1	-1
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.05	1	-1
Reach QF		Sweden	yes	15.9	2	-2
Reach SF		Sweden	yes	33.66	2	-2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.0	2	-2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.0	2	-2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.5	2	-2
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.0	2	-2
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Algeria	yes	12.93	2	-2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.0	2	-2
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.0	3	-3
Winner		Netherlands		25.0	3	-3
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.0	4	-4
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.0	4	-4
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.0	5	-5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.1	5	-5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.0	5	-5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.0	5	-5
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.9	5	-5
Reach R16		Senegal	yes	2.38	5	-5
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.45	6	-6
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.64	6	-6
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.0	7	-7
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7	-7
To Qualify	L	Croatia	no	11.5	8	-8
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9	-9
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.4	10	-10
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.65	11	-11
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13	-13
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.12	15	-15
Reach R16		Austria	yes	4.879	21	-21
Reach R16		Switzerland	no	2.82	21	-21
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.0	22	-22
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.0	24	-24
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.383	24	-24
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.996	25	-25
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.5	25	-25
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.348	28	-28
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	16.568	30	-30
Reach R16		Algeria	yes	2.809	32	-32
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.298	33	-33
Group Last	D	Australia		14.9	36	-36
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37	-37
Winner		Germany		18.803	38	-38
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.35	44	-44
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113	-113
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.044	139	-139
		Realised (settled)			1360	-254

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Returned	Available	of which borrowed
Before	6.847	941	1866	979	363	250
After	6.858	951	1973	1104	381	250
Change	0.011	10	107	125	18	0

Day 24

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Reach SF		Morocco	no	1.25	52
Reach SF		Argentina	no	2.59	12
Reach QF		Spain	no	2.98	9
Reach QF		United States	no	2.04	6
Winner		Spain		7.30	5
Winner		England		13.00	5
Reach Final		France	no	1.97	5
Reach QF		Norway	yes	3.04	5
Reach QF		Paraguay	yes	11.73	4
Winner		Brazil		13.00	3
Reach SF		Brazil	yes	2.88	2
Reach Final		Argentina	no	1.57	2

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake	Net
Reach SF		Morocco	no	1.25	169
Reach QF		United States	yes	2.952	56
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	3.728	47
Reach QF		Argentina	yes	1.24	39
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	2.911	35
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.589	31
Winner		Brazil		13.982	30
Reach QF		Spain	no	2.892	24
Winner		Spain		8.205	22
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.426	21
Winner		England		10.137	19
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	11.632	19
Reach Final		France	no	2.044	13
Reach QF		France	no	2.6	13
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	8.917	12
Reach SF		Argentina	no	2.59	12
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.076	10
Reach QF		Canada	yes	3.324	9
Reach QF		Brazil	no	2.95	9
Reach QF		Norway	yes	3.0	9
Reach SF		Brazil	yes	2.805	8
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	25.483	7
Reach Final		Spain	yes	4.2	7
Reach SF		Paraguay	yes	32.333	6
Reach QF		United States	no	2.04	6
Winner		Belgium		66.0	6
Reach Final		Brazil	yes	5.23	5
Reach Final		Argentina	yes	3.25	5
Reach Final		Switzerland	yes	34.0	4
Winner		Argentina		10.5	4
Reach QF		Paraguay	yes	11.73	4
Reach Final		Argentina	no	1.57	2
Winner		Switzerland		101.0	2
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45	166
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92	88
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.0	30	60
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.701	81	57
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	70	52
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.601	78	47
Reach R16		Morocco	yes	2.507	30	45
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	4.657	7	26
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.654	25	16
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.894	13	12
Reach R16		Ivory Coast	no	1.54	22	12
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11	10
Reach R16		Ghana	no	1.37	23	9
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.25	7	9
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.62	10	6
Reach R16		DR Congo	yes	7.67	1	-1
Reach R16		Belgium	no	2.52	1	-1
Reach QF		South Korea	yes	26.0	1	-1
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.05	1	-1
Reach QF		Sweden	yes	15.9	2	-2
Reach SF		Sweden	yes	33.66	2	-2
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Algeria	yes	12.93	2	-2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.0	2	-2
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.0	2	-2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.0	2	-2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.5	2	-2
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.0	3	-3
Winner		Netherlands		25.0	3	-3
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.0	4	-4
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.0	4	-4
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.0	5	-5
Reach R16		Senegal	yes	2.38	5	-5
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.0	5	-5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.1	5	-5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.0	5	-5
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.9	5	-5
Reach R16		Ghana	yes	4.442	5	-5
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.64	6	-6
Reach R16		Australia	yes	2.75	6	-6
Reach R16		Cape Verde	yes	13.02	6	-6
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.45	6	-6
Reach R16		Colombia	no	4.75	7	-7
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7	-7
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.0	7	-7
To Qualify	L	Croatia	no	11.5	8	-8
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9	-9
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.4	10	-10
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.65	11	-11
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13	-13
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.12	15	-15
Reach R16		Switzerland	no	2.82	21	-21
Reach R16		Austria	yes	4.879	21	-21
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.0	22	-22
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.383	24	-24
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.0	24	-24
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.5	25	-25
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.996	25	-25
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.348	28	-28
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	16.568	30	-30
Reach R16		Algeria	yes	2.809	32	-32
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.298	33	-33
Group Last	D	Australia		14.9	36	-36
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37	-37
Winner		Germany		18.803	38	-38
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.35	44	-44
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113	-113
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.044	139	-139
		Realised (settled)			1418	-259

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Returned	Available	of which borrowed
Before	6.858	951	1973	1104	381	250
After	6.842	936	2083	1157	324	250
Change	-0.016	-15	110	53	-57	0

Day 25

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Reach Final		France	no	2.18	36
Reach QF		Norway	yes	3.17	10
Reach SF		Argentina	no	2.55	7
Reach SF		Brazil	yes	2.88	7
Reach QF		Portugal	yes	3.00	6
Reach Final		Argentina	no	1.55	3
Winner		England		13.00	3
Winner		Spain		8.00	3
Reach QF		Egypt	yes	5.92	2
Winner		Argentina		6.00	1
Winner		Brazil		13.00	1
Winner		Belgium		81.00	1

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake	Net
Reach SF		Morocco	no	1.25	169
Reach QF		United States	yes	2.952	56
Reach Final		France	no	2.144	49
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	3.728	47
Reach QF		Argentina	yes	1.24	39
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	2.911	35
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.589	31
Winner		Brazil		13.951	31
Winner		Spain		8.18	25
Reach QF		Spain	no	2.892	24
Winner		England		10.527	22
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.426	21
Reach QF		Norway	yes	3.089	19
Reach SF		Argentina	no	2.575	19
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	11.632	19
Reach SF		Brazil	yes	2.84	15
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	8.917	12
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.076	10
Reach QF		Brazil	no	2.95	9
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	25.483	7
Winner		Belgium		68.143	7
Reach Final		Spain	yes	4.2	7
Reach QF		Portugal	yes	3.0	6
Reach QF		United States	no	2.04	6
Reach Final		Brazil	yes	5.23	5
Reach Final		Argentina	yes	3.25	5
Reach Final		Argentina	no	1.558	5
Winner		Argentina		9.6	5
Reach Final		Switzerland	yes	34.0	4
Reach QF		Egypt	yes	5.92	2
Winner		Switzerland		101.0	2
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45	166
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92	88
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.0	30	60
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.701	81	57
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	70	52
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.601	78	47
Reach R16		Morocco	yes	2.507	30	45
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	4.657	7	26
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.654	25	16
Reach R16		Ivory Coast	no	1.54	22	12
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.894	13	12
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11	10
Reach R16		Ghana	no	1.37	23	9
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.25	7	9
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.62	10	6
Reach QF		South Korea	yes	26.0	1	-1
Reach R16		Belgium	no	2.52	1	-1
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.05	1	-1
Reach R16		DR Congo	yes	7.67	1	-1
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.5	2	-2
Reach QF		Sweden	yes	15.9	2	-2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.0	2	-2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Algeria	yes	12.93	2	-2
Reach SF		Sweden	yes	33.66	2	-2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.0	2	-2
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.0	2	-2
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.0	2	-2
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.0	3	-3
Winner		Netherlands		25.0	3	-3
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.0	4	-4
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.0	4	-4
Reach QF		Paraguay	yes	11.73	4	-4
Reach R16		Senegal	yes	2.38	5	-5
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.0	5	-5
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.9	5	-5
Reach R16		Ghana	yes	4.442	5	-5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.0	5	-5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.1	5	-5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.0	5	-5
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.64	6	-6
Reach R16		Australia	yes	2.75	6	-6
Reach SF		Paraguay	yes	32.333	6	-6
Reach R16		Cape Verde	yes	13.02	6	-6
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.45	6	-6
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.0	7	-7
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7	-7
Reach R16		Colombia	no	4.75	7	-7
To Qualify	L	Croatia	no	11.5	8	-8
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9	-9
Reach QF		Canada	yes	3.324	9	-9
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.4	10	-10
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.65	11	-11
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13	-13
Reach QF		France	no	2.6	13	-13
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.12	15	-15
Reach R16		Switzerland	no	2.82	21	-21
Reach R16		Austria	yes	4.879	21	-21
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.0	22	-22
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.383	24	-24
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.0	24	-24
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.5	25	-25
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.996	25	-25
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.348	28	-28
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	16.568	30	-30
Reach R16		Algeria	yes	2.809	32	-32
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.298	33	-33
Group Last	D	Australia		14.9	36	-36
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37	-37
Winner		Germany		18.803	38	-38
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.35	44	-44
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113	-113
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.044	139	-139
		Realised (settled)			1450	-291

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Returned	Available	of which borrowed
Before	6.842	936	2083	1157	324	250
After	6.798	896	2163	1157	244	250
Change	-0.044	-40	80	0	-80	0

Day 26

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Reach Final		France	no	2.10	28
Reach SF		Norway	yes	2.81	10
Reach QF		Portugal	yes	3.00	10
Reach Final		England	yes	2.88	8
Reach SF		Argentina	no	2.55	7
Winner		England		6.50	6
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	2.12	5
Reach QF		Belgium	no	1.91	4
Reach Final		Norway	yes	6.46	2
Reach SF		Morocco	yes	4.11	1
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	1.64	1

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake	Net
Reach SF		Morocco	no	1.25	169
Reach Final		France	no	2.128	77
Reach QF		United States	yes	2.952	56
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	3.728	47
Reach QF		Argentina	yes	1.24	39
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	2.911	35
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.528	32
Winner		England		9.664	28
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.175	26
Reach SF		Argentina	no	2.568	26
Winner		Spain		8.18	25
Reach QF		Spain	no	2.892	24
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	11.632	19
Reach QF		Portugal	yes	3.0	16
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	8.917	12
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.076	10
Reach SF		Norway	yes	2.81	10
Reach Final		England	yes	2.88	8
Winner		Belgium		68.143	7
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	25.483	7
Reach Final		Spain	yes	4.2	7
Reach QF		United States	no	2.04	6
Reach Final		Argentina	no	1.558	5
Reach Final		Argentina	yes	3.25	5
Winner		Argentina		9.6	5
Reach Final		Switzerland	yes	34.0	4
Reach QF		Belgium	no	1.91	4
Reach QF		Egypt	yes	5.92	2
Reach Final		Norway	yes	6.46	2
Winner		Switzerland		101.0	2
Reach SF		Morocco	yes	4.11	1
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45	166
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92	88
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.0	30	60
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.701	81	57
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	70	52
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.601	78	47
Reach R16		Morocco	yes	2.507	30	45
Reach QF		Norway	yes	3.089	19	40
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	4.657	7	26
Reach QF		Brazil	no	2.95	9	18
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.654	25	16
Reach R16		Ivory Coast	no	1.54	22	12
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.894	13	12
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11	10
Reach R16		Ghana	no	1.37	23	9
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.25	7	9
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.62	10	6
Reach R16		Belgium	no	2.52	1	-1
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.05	1	-1
Reach QF		South Korea	yes	26.0	1	-1
Reach R16		DR Congo	yes	7.67	1	-1
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.0	2	-2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.0	2	-2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.0	2	-2
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.0	2	-2
Reach SF		Sweden	yes	33.66	2	-2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.5	2	-2
Reach QF		Sweden	yes	15.9	2	-2
Reach QF		Algeria	yes	12.93	2	-2
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.0	2	-2
Winner		Netherlands		25.0	3	-3
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.0	3	-3
Reach QF		Paraguay	yes	11.73	4	-4
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.0	4	-4
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.0	4	-4
Reach R16		Senegal	yes	2.38	5	-5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.0	5	-5
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.0	5	-5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.1	5	-5
Reach R16		Ghana	yes	4.442	5	-5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.0	5	-5
Reach Final		Brazil	yes	5.23	5	-5
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.9	5	-5
Reach R16		Australia	yes	2.75	6	-6
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.64	6	-6
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.45	6	-6
Reach SF		Paraguay	yes	32.333	6	-6
Reach R16		Cape Verde	yes	13.02	6	-6
Reach R16		Colombia	no	4.75	7	-7
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.0	7	-7
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7	-7
To Qualify	L	Croatia	no	11.5	8	-8
Reach QF		Canada	yes	3.324	9	-9
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9	-9
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.4	10	-10
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.65	11	-11
Reach QF		France	no	2.6	13	-13
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13	-13
Reach SF		Brazil	yes	2.84	15	-15
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.12	15	-15
Reach R16		Austria	yes	4.879	21	-21
Reach R16		Switzerland	no	2.82	21	-21
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.0	22	-22
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.383	24	-24
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.0	24	-24
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.5	25	-25
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.996	25	-25
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.348	28	-28
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	16.568	30	-30
Winner		Brazil		13.951	31	-31
Reach R16		Algeria	yes	2.809	32	-32
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.298	33	-33
Group Last	D	Australia		14.9	36	-36
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37	-37
Winner		Germany		18.803	38	-38
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.35	44	-44
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113	-113
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.044	139	-139
		Realised (settled)			1529	-284

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Returned	Available	of which borrowed
Before	6.798	896	2163	1157	244	250
After	6.823	919	2245	1242	247	250
Change	0.025	23	82	85	3	0

Day 27

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Reach Final		France	no	2.10	24
Reach Final		Argentina	no	1.55	9
Winner		England		6.50	4
Reach SF		Norway	yes	2.80	4
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	1.63	2
Reach SF		Argentina	no	2.55	1

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake	Net
Reach SF		Morocco	no	1.25	169
Reach Final		France	no	2.121	101
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	3.728	47
Reach QF		Argentina	yes	1.24	39
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	2.911	35
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.416	34
Winner		England		9.269	32
Reach SF		Argentina	no	2.568	27
Winner		Spain		8.18	25
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	11.632	19
Reach Final		Argentina	no	1.553	14
Reach SF		Norway	yes	2.807	14
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	8.917	12
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.076	10
Reach Final		England	yes	2.88	8
Winner		Belgium		68.143	7
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	25.483	7
Reach Final		Spain	yes	4.2	7
Reach Final		Argentina	yes	3.25	5
Winner		Argentina		9.6	5
Reach Final		Switzerland	yes	34.0	4
Reach QF		Egypt	yes	5.92	2
Reach Final		Norway	yes	6.46	2
Winner		Switzerland		101.0	2
Reach SF		Morocco	yes	4.11	1
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45	166
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92	88
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.0	30	60
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.175	26	57
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.701	81	57
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	70	52
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.601	78	47
Reach R16		Morocco	yes	2.507	30	45
Reach QF		Norway	yes	3.089	19	40
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	4.657	7	26
Reach QF		Brazil	no	2.95	9	18
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.654	25	16
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.894	13	12
Reach R16		Ivory Coast	no	1.54	22	12
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11	10
Reach R16		Ghana	no	1.37	23	9
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.25	7	9
Reach QF		United States	no	2.04	6	6
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.62	10	6
Reach R16		DR Congo	yes	7.67	1	-1
Reach QF		South Korea	yes	26.0	1	-1
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.05	1	-1
Reach R16		Belgium	no	2.52	1	-1
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Sweden	yes	15.9	2	-2
Reach SF		Sweden	yes	33.66	2	-2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.0	2	-2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.5	2	-2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Algeria	yes	12.93	2	-2
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.0	2	-2
Winner		Netherlands		25.0	3	-3
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.0	3	-3
Reach QF		Paraguay	yes	11.73	4	-4
Reach QF		Belgium	no	1.91	4	-4
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.0	4	-4
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.0	4	-4
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.9	5	-5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.0	5	-5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.1	5	-5
Reach Final		Brazil	yes	5.23	5	-5
Reach R16		Senegal	yes	2.38	5	-5
Reach R16		Ghana	yes	4.442	5	-5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.0	5	-5
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.0	5	-5
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.64	6	-6
Reach R16		Australia	yes	2.75	6	-6
Reach SF		Paraguay	yes	32.333	6	-6
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.45	6	-6
Reach R16		Cape Verde	yes	13.02	6	-6
Reach R16		Colombia	no	4.75	7	-7
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7	-7
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.0	7	-7
To Qualify	L	Croatia	no	11.5	8	-8
Reach QF		Canada	yes	3.324	9	-9
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9	-9
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.4	10	-10
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.65	11	-11
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13	-13
Reach QF		France	no	2.6	13	-13
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.12	15	-15
Reach SF		Brazil	yes	2.84	15	-15
Reach QF		Portugal	yes	3.0	16	-16
Reach R16		Austria	yes	4.879	21	-21
Reach R16		Switzerland	no	2.82	21	-21
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.0	22	-22
Reach QF		Spain	no	2.892	24	-24
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.0	24	-24
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.383	24	-24
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.996	25	-25
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.5	25	-25
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.348	28	-28
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	16.568	30	-30
Winner		Brazil		13.951	31	-31
Reach R16		Algeria	yes	2.809	32	-32
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.298	33	-33
Group Last	D	Australia		14.9	36	-36
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37	-37
Winner		Germany		18.803	38	-38
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.35	44	-44
Reach QF		United States	yes	2.952	56	-56
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113	-113
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.044	139	-139
		Realised (settled)			1661	-321

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Returned	Available	of which borrowed
Before	6.823	919	2245	1242	247	250
After	6.790	888	2289	1337	298	250
Change	-0.034	-31	44	95	51	0

Day 28

The quarter-finals are set, and for once there is a day with no football. Below are the usual daily tables. Then, with no game to trade around, a wider look at where the campaign stands: the bankroll over time, the best and worst that can still happen, the results we are rooting for, and the full spread of where the tournament might leave us.

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Reach Final		France	no	2.10	23
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	1.34	7
Reach SF		Morocco	yes	4.23	3
Winner		Argentina		5.25	2

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake	Net
Reach SF		Morocco	no	1.25	169
Reach Final		France	no	2.117	124
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	2.65	42
Winner		England		9.269	32
Reach SF		Argentina	no	2.568	27
Winner		Spain		8.18	25
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	11.632	19
Reach Final		Argentina	no	1.553	14
Reach SF		Norway	yes	2.807	14
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.076	10
Reach Final		England	yes	2.88	8
Winner		Belgium		68.143	7
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	25.483	7
Winner		Argentina		8.357	7
Reach Final		Spain	yes	4.2	7
Reach Final		Argentina	yes	3.25	5
Reach Final		Switzerland	yes	34.0	4
Reach SF		Morocco	yes	4.2	4
Reach Final		Norway	yes	6.46	2
Winner		Switzerland		101.0	2
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45	166
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	3.728	47	128
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92	88
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.0	30	60
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.175	26	57
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.701	81	57
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	70	52
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.601	78	47
Reach R16		Morocco	yes	2.507	30	45
Reach QF		Norway	yes	3.089	19	40
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	4.657	7	26
Reach QF		Brazil	no	2.95	9	18
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.654	25	16
Reach R16		Ivory Coast	no	1.54	22	12
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.894	13	12
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11	10
Reach R16		Ghana	no	1.37	23	9
Reach QF		Argentina	yes	1.24	39	9
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.25	7	9
Reach QF		United States	no	2.04	6	6
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.62	10	6
Reach R16		DR Congo	yes	7.67	1	-1
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.05	1	-1
Reach R16		Belgium	no	2.52	1	-1
Reach QF		South Korea	yes	26.0	1	-1
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.0	2	-2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.5	2	-2
Reach QF		Algeria	yes	12.93	2	-2
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.0	2	-2
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Sweden	yes	15.9	2	-2
Reach SF		Sweden	yes	33.66	2	-2
Reach QF		Egypt	yes	5.92	2	-2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.0	2	-2
Winner		Netherlands		25.0	3	-3
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.0	3	-3
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.0	4	-4
Reach QF		Belgium	no	1.91	4	-4
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.0	4	-4
Reach QF		Paraguay	yes	11.73	4	-4
Reach R16		Ghana	yes	4.442	5	-5
Reach Final		Brazil	yes	5.23	5	-5
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.9	5	-5
Reach R16		Senegal	yes	2.38	5	-5
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.0	5	-5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.0	5	-5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.1	5	-5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.0	5	-5
Reach SF		Paraguay	yes	32.333	6	-6
Reach R16		Cape Verde	yes	13.02	6	-6
Reach R16		Australia	yes	2.75	6	-6
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.64	6	-6
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.45	6	-6
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.0	7	-7
Reach R16		Colombia	no	4.75	7	-7
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7	-7
To Qualify	L	Croatia	no	11.5	8	-8
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9	-9
Reach QF		Canada	yes	3.324	9	-9
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.4	10	-10
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.65	11	-11
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	8.917	12	-12
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13	-13
Reach QF		France	no	2.6	13	-13
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.12	15	-15
Reach SF		Brazil	yes	2.84	15	-15
Reach QF		Portugal	yes	3.0	16	-16
Reach R16		Switzerland	no	2.82	21	-21
Reach R16		Austria	yes	4.879	21	-21
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.0	22	-22
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.383	24	-24
Reach QF		Spain	no	2.892	24	-24
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.0	24	-24
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.5	25	-25
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.996	25	-25
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.348	28	-28
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	16.568	30	-30
Winner		Brazil		13.951	31	-31
Reach R16		Algeria	yes	2.809	32	-32
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.298	33	-33
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.416	34	-34
Group Last	D	Australia		14.9	36	-36
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37	-37
Winner		Germany		18.803	38	-38
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.35	44	-44
Reach QF		United States	yes	2.952	56	-56
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113	-113
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.044	139	-139
		Realised (settled)			1795	-232

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Returned	Available	of which borrowed
Before	6.790	888	2289	1337	298	250
After	6.854	948	2324	1560	486	250
Change	0.065	60	35	223	188	0

The bankroll so far

Three lines, one point per day. Exp Real is our expected end-of-tournament bankroll, the same figure the daily table quotes. Staked is the running total the optimiser has put through the book; it climbs past the starting 1,000 because settled winnings return to the pot and get redeployed. Available is the cash free to bet plus the borrow allowance.

Expectation peaked near 1,290 units late in the group stage. Then the knockout upsets bit, dragging it down to 868 by the round of 16, before the daily re-opt clawed it back to 948.

Best and worst from here

There’s now 128 possible runouts left in the tournament. The best for us is a Belgium fairytale (upset Spain, come through the semi, win the final), worth 1,924 units at a 0.17% chance; most of the upside sitting on Belgium to win outright at odds 68. The worst runout is France - the model’s second-favourite to lift the trophy at 22% - which we are heavily positioned against. In between, the most likely single outcome (Spain champion) lands us on 1,100 units, +335 on today.

Semi-final 1 is the France/Morocco winner against the Spain/Belgium winner; semi-final 2 pairs the other half.

	Most likely ★	Best case ▲	Worst case ▼
France v Morocco	France	France	France
Spain v Belgium	Spain	Belgium	Spain
Norway v England	England	Norway	England
Argentina v Switzerland	Argentina	Switzerland	Argentina
Semi-final 1	Spain	Belgium	France
Semi-final 2	England	Switzerland	Argentina
Champion	Spain	Belgium	France
Final bankroll	1,100 units	1,924 units	575 units
vs today	+335	+1,158	-190
Model probability	3.40%	0.17%	2.84%

What we’re rooting for

Zooming in on just the next round: for each quarter-final, how does our expected real bankroll shift depending on who goes through?

The board is heavily lopsided. Switzerland past Argentina is worth +198 units to us, comfortably the highest-leverage result left, because we are long Switzerland to go deep and short Argentina at the same time. We are also pulling for Belgium (+72) and Morocco (+37) to spring upsets, and for England (+13) to see off Norway. In three of the four ties, we want the underdog through.

The full range of outcomes

All 128 runouts, each weighted by how likely the model thinks it is, binned by the bankroll it leaves us on. The solid line is our expected real bankroll (948); the dashed line is where we sit today (765); break-even on the tournament is 1,000. The mass to the right of today is the recovery the open book is priced to deliver: a 74% chance of finishing above where we are now, though only a 43% chance of ending the tournament back above the starting 1,000. The thin right tail past 1,900 is the Belgium jackpot.

Day 29

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Reach Final		France	no	2.100	27
Reach Final		Spain	no	1.546	18
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	1.340	12
Winner		Argentina		5.250	2
Winner		Spain		5.000	1

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake	Net
Reach SF		Morocco	no	1.25	169
Reach Final		France	no	2.114	151
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	2.359	54
Winner		England		9.269	32
Reach SF		Argentina	no	2.568	27
Winner		Spain		8.058	26
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	11.632	19
Reach Final		Spain	no	1.546	18
Reach Final		Argentina	no	1.553	14
Reach SF		Norway	yes	2.807	14
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.076	10
Winner		Argentina		7.667	9
Reach Final		England	yes	2.88	8
Winner		Belgium		68.143	7
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	25.483	7
Reach Final		Spain	yes	4.2	7
Reach Final		Argentina	yes	3.25	5
Reach Final		Switzerland	yes	34.0	4
Reach SF		Morocco	yes	4.2	4
Reach Final		Norway	yes	6.46	2
Winner		Switzerland		101.0	2
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45	166
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	3.728	47	128
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92	88
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.0	30	60
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.175	26	57
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.701	81	57
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	70	52
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.601	78	47
Reach R16		Morocco	yes	2.507	30	45
Reach QF		Norway	yes	3.089	19	40
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	4.657	7	26
Reach QF		Brazil	no	2.95	9	18
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.654	25	16
Reach R16		Ivory Coast	no	1.54	22	12
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.894	13	12
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11	10
Reach R16		Ghana	no	1.37	23	9
Reach QF		Argentina	yes	1.24	39	9
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.25	7	9
Reach QF		United States	no	2.04	6	6
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.62	10	6
Reach R16		DR Congo	yes	7.67	1	-1
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.05	1	-1
Reach R16		Belgium	no	2.52	1	-1
Reach QF		South Korea	yes	26.0	1	-1
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.0	2	-2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.5	2	-2
Reach QF		Algeria	yes	12.93	2	-2
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.0	2	-2
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Sweden	yes	15.9	2	-2
Reach SF		Sweden	yes	33.66	2	-2
Reach QF		Egypt	yes	5.92	2	-2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.0	2	-2
Winner		Netherlands		25.0	3	-3
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.0	3	-3
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.0	4	-4
Reach QF		Belgium	no	1.91	4	-4
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.0	4	-4
Reach QF		Paraguay	yes	11.73	4	-4
Reach R16		Ghana	yes	4.442	5	-5
Reach Final		Brazil	yes	5.23	5	-5
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.9	5	-5
Reach R16		Senegal	yes	2.38	5	-5
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.0	5	-5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.0	5	-5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.1	5	-5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.0	5	-5
Reach SF		Paraguay	yes	32.333	6	-6
Reach R16		Cape Verde	yes	13.02	6	-6
Reach R16		Australia	yes	2.75	6	-6
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.64	6	-6
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.45	6	-6
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.0	7	-7
Reach R16		Colombia	no	4.75	7	-7
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7	-7
To Qualify	L	Croatia	no	11.5	8	-8
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9	-9
Reach QF		Canada	yes	3.324	9	-9
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.4	10	-10
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.65	11	-11
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	8.917	12	-12
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13	-13
Reach QF		France	no	2.6	13	-13
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.12	15	-15
Reach SF		Brazil	yes	2.84	15	-15
Reach QF		Portugal	yes	3.0	16	-16
Reach R16		Switzerland	no	2.82	21	-21
Reach R16		Austria	yes	4.879	21	-21
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.0	22	-22
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.383	24	-24
Reach QF		Spain	no	2.892	24	-24
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.0	24	-24
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.5	25	-25
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.996	25	-25
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.348	28	-28
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	16.568	30	-30
Winner		Brazil		13.951	31	-31
Reach R16		Algeria	yes	2.809	32	-32
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.298	33	-33
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.416	34	-34
Group Last	D	Australia		14.9	36	-36
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37	-37
Winner		Germany		18.803	38	-38
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.35	44	-44
Reach QF		United States	yes	2.952	56	-56
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113	-113
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.044	139	-139
		Realised (settled)			1795	-232

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Returned	Available	of which borrowed
Before	6.854	948	2324	1560	486	250
After	6.855	948	2384	1560	426	250
Change	0.000	0	60	0	-60	0

Day 30

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Reach Final		Spain	no	1.436	16
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	1.340	11

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake	Net
Reach Final		France	no	2.114	151
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	2.186	65
Reach Final		Spain	no	1.494	34
Winner		England		9.269	32
Reach SF		Argentina	no	2.568	27
Winner		Spain		8.058	26
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	11.632	19
Reach SF		Norway	yes	2.807	14
Reach Final		Argentina	no	1.553	14
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.076	10
Winner		Argentina		7.667	9
Reach Final		England	yes	2.88	8
Reach Final		Spain	yes	4.2	7
Winner		Belgium		68.143	7
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	25.483	7
Reach Final		Argentina	yes	3.25	5
Reach Final		Switzerland	yes	34.0	4
Reach Final		Norway	yes	6.46	2
Winner		Switzerland		101.0	2
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45	166
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	3.728	47	128
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92	88
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.0	30	60
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.175	26	57
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.701	81	57
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	70	52
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.601	78	47
Reach R16		Morocco	yes	2.507	30	45
Reach SF		Morocco	no	1.25	169	42
Reach QF		Norway	yes	3.089	19	40
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	4.657	7	26
Reach QF		Brazil	no	2.95	9	18
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.654	25	16
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.894	13	12
Reach R16		Ivory Coast	no	1.54	22	12
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11	10
Reach R16		Ghana	no	1.37	23	9
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.25	7	9
Reach QF		Argentina	yes	1.24	39	9
Reach QF		United States	no	2.04	6	6
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.62	10	6
Reach R16		DR Congo	yes	7.67	1	-1
Reach R16		Belgium	no	2.52	1	-1
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.05	1	-1
Reach QF		South Korea	yes	26.0	1	-1
Reach QF		Algeria	yes	12.93	2	-2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.0	2	-2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.5	2	-2
Reach QF		Sweden	yes	15.9	2	-2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.0	2	-2
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.0	2	-2
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.0	2	-2
Reach SF		Sweden	yes	33.66	2	-2
Reach QF		Egypt	yes	5.92	2	-2
Winner		Netherlands		25.0	3	-3
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.0	3	-3
Reach QF		Belgium	no	1.91	4	-4
Reach QF		Paraguay	yes	11.73	4	-4
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.0	4	-4
Reach SF		Morocco	yes	4.2	4	-4
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.0	4	-4
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.0	5	-5
Reach R16		Ghana	yes	4.442	5	-5
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.9	5	-5
Reach Final		Brazil	yes	5.23	5	-5
Reach R16		Senegal	yes	2.38	5	-5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.0	5	-5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.1	5	-5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.0	5	-5
Reach R16		Australia	yes	2.75	6	-6
Reach SF		Paraguay	yes	32.333	6	-6
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.45	6	-6
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.64	6	-6
Reach R16		Cape Verde	yes	13.02	6	-6
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7	-7
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.0	7	-7
Reach R16		Colombia	no	4.75	7	-7
To Qualify	L	Croatia	no	11.5	8	-8
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9	-9
Reach QF		Canada	yes	3.324	9	-9
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.4	10	-10
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.65	11	-11
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	8.917	12	-12
Reach QF		France	no	2.6	13	-13
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13	-13
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.12	15	-15
Reach SF		Brazil	yes	2.84	15	-15
Reach QF		Portugal	yes	3.0	16	-16
Reach R16		Switzerland	no	2.82	21	-21
Reach R16		Austria	yes	4.879	21	-21
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.0	22	-22
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.383	24	-24
Reach QF		Spain	no	2.892	24	-24
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.0	24	-24
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.5	25	-25
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.996	25	-25
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.348	28	-28
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	16.568	30	-30
Winner		Brazil		13.951	31	-31
Reach R16		Algeria	yes	2.809	32	-32
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.298	33	-33
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.416	34	-34
Group Last	D	Australia		14.9	36	-36
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37	-37
Winner		Germany		18.803	38	-38
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.35	44	-44
Reach QF		United States	yes	2.952	56	-56
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113	-113
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.044	139	-139
		Realised (settled)			1968	-194

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Returned	Available	of which borrowed
Before	6.855	948	2384	1560	426	250
After	6.827	923	2411	1772	611	250
Change	-0.028	-25	27	212	185	0

Day 31

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Reach Final		France	yes	1.72	46
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	1.34	11
Winner		Spain		4.30	4
Reach SF		England	no	2.72	3
Winner		Argentina		5.60	2

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake	Net
Reach Final		France	no	2.114	151
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	2.064	76
Reach Final		France	yes	1.72	46
Reach Final		Spain	no	1.494	34
Winner		England		9.269	32
Winner		Spain		7.557	30
Reach SF		Argentina	no	2.568	27
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	11.632	19
Reach Final		Argentina	no	1.553	14
Reach SF		Norway	yes	2.807	14
Winner		Argentina		7.291	11
Reach Final		England	yes	2.88	8
Reach Final		Spain	yes	4.2	7
Reach Final		Argentina	yes	3.25	5
Reach Final		Switzerland	yes	34.0	4
Reach SF		England	no	2.72	3
Reach Final		Norway	yes	6.46	2
Winner		Switzerland		101.0	2
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45	166
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	3.728	47	128
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92	88
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.0	30	60
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.701	81	57
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.175	26	57
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	70	52
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.601	78	47
Reach R16		Morocco	yes	2.507	30	45
Reach SF		Morocco	no	1.25	169	42
Reach QF		Norway	yes	3.089	19	40
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	4.657	7	26
Reach QF		Brazil	no	2.95	9	18
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.654	25	16
Reach R16		Ivory Coast	no	1.54	22	12
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.894	13	12
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11	10
Reach R16		Ghana	no	1.37	23	9
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.25	7	9
Reach QF		Argentina	yes	1.24	39	9
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.62	10	6
Reach QF		United States	no	2.04	6	6
Reach R16		DR Congo	yes	7.67	1	-1
Reach QF		South Korea	yes	26.0	1	-1
Reach R16		Belgium	no	2.52	1	-1
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.05	1	-1
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Algeria	yes	12.93	2	-2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.0	2	-2
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.0	2	-2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.5	2	-2
Reach QF		Sweden	yes	15.9	2	-2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Egypt	yes	5.92	2	-2
Reach SF		Sweden	yes	33.66	2	-2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.0	2	-2
Winner		Netherlands		25.0	3	-3
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.0	3	-3
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.0	4	-4
Reach SF		Morocco	yes	4.2	4	-4
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.0	4	-4
Reach QF		Belgium	no	1.91	4	-4
Reach QF		Paraguay	yes	11.73	4	-4
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.9	5	-5
Reach Final		Brazil	yes	5.23	5	-5
Reach R16		Ghana	yes	4.442	5	-5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.1	5	-5
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.0	5	-5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.0	5	-5
Reach R16		Senegal	yes	2.38	5	-5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.0	5	-5
Reach SF		Paraguay	yes	32.333	6	-6
Reach R16		Cape Verde	yes	13.02	6	-6
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.45	6	-6
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.64	6	-6
Reach R16		Australia	yes	2.75	6	-6
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7	-7
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.0	7	-7
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	25.483	7	-7
Reach R16		Colombia	no	4.75	7	-7
Winner		Belgium		68.143	7	-7
To Qualify	L	Croatia	no	11.5	8	-8
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9	-9
Reach QF		Canada	yes	3.324	9	-9
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.4	10	-10
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.076	10	-10
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.65	11	-11
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	8.917	12	-12
Reach QF		France	no	2.6	13	-13
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13	-13
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.12	15	-15
Reach SF		Brazil	yes	2.84	15	-15
Reach QF		Portugal	yes	3.0	16	-16
Reach R16		Switzerland	no	2.82	21	-21
Reach R16		Austria	yes	4.879	21	-21
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.0	22	-22
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.0	24	-24
Reach QF		Spain	no	2.892	24	-24
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.383	24	-24
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.5	25	-25
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.996	25	-25
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.348	28	-28
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	16.568	30	-30
Winner		Brazil		13.951	31	-31
Reach R16		Algeria	yes	2.809	32	-32
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.298	33	-33
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.416	34	-34
Group Last	D	Australia		14.9	36	-36
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37	-37
Winner		Germany		18.803	38	-38
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.35	44	-44
Reach QF		United States	yes	2.952	56	-56
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113	-113
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.044	139	-139
		Realised (settled)			1992	-218

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Returned	Available	of which borrowed
Before	6.827	923	2411	1772	611	250
After	6.786	886	2477	1772	545	250
Change	-0.041	-37	66	0	-66	0

Day 32

The semi-finals are set, and it is another quiet day without football. The quarter-finals went almost entirely with the favourites — France, Spain, Argentina and England all came through, and the three upsets we were leaning on (Switzerland over Argentina above all) never arrived; only England, the smallest of our rooting bets a round ago, delivered. Below are the usual daily tables.

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Reach Final		Spain	no	1.68	30
Reach Final		Argentina	yes	2.22	12

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake	Net
Reach Final		France	no	2.114	151
Reach Final		Spain	no	1.581	64
Reach Final		France	yes	1.72	46
Winner		England		9.269	32
Winner		Spain		7.557	30
Reach Final		Argentina	yes	2.523	17
Reach Final		Argentina	no	1.553	14
Winner		Argentina		7.291	11
Reach Final		England	yes	2.88	8
Reach Final		Spain	yes	4.2	7
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45	166
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	3.728	47	128
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92	88
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	2.064	76	81
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.0	30	60
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.701	81	57
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.175	26	57
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	70	52
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.601	78	47
Reach R16		Morocco	yes	2.507	30	45
Reach SF		Morocco	no	1.25	169	42
Reach QF		Norway	yes	3.089	19	40
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	4.657	7	26
Reach QF		Brazil	no	2.95	9	18
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.654	25	16
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.894	13	12
Reach R16		Ivory Coast	no	1.54	22	12
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11	10
Reach QF		Argentina	yes	1.24	39	9
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.25	7	9
Reach R16		Ghana	no	1.37	23	9
Reach QF		United States	no	2.04	6	6
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.62	10	6
Reach R16		DR Congo	yes	7.67	1	-1
Reach R16		Belgium	no	2.52	1	-1
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.05	1	-1
Reach QF		South Korea	yes	26.0	1	-1
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.0	2	-2
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Algeria	yes	12.93	2	-2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.0	2	-2
Reach SF		Sweden	yes	33.66	2	-2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.0	2	-2
Winner		Switzerland		101.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Sweden	yes	15.9	2	-2
Reach QF		Egypt	yes	5.92	2	-2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.5	2	-2
Reach Final		Norway	yes	6.46	2	-2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.0	2	-2
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.0	3	-3
Reach SF		England	no	2.72	3	-3
Winner		Netherlands		25.0	3	-3
Reach Final		Switzerland	yes	34.0	4	-4
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.0	4	-4
Reach SF		Morocco	yes	4.2	4	-4
Reach QF		Belgium	no	1.91	4	-4
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.0	4	-4
Reach QF		Paraguay	yes	11.73	4	-4
Reach R16		Senegal	yes	2.38	5	-5
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.9	5	-5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.0	5	-5
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.0	5	-5
Reach Final		Brazil	yes	5.23	5	-5
Reach R16		Ghana	yes	4.442	5	-5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.0	5	-5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.1	5	-5
Reach R16		Australia	yes	2.75	6	-6
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.64	6	-6
Reach R16		Cape Verde	yes	13.02	6	-6
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.45	6	-6
Reach SF		Paraguay	yes	32.333	6	-6
Winner		Belgium		68.143	7	-7
Reach R16		Colombia	no	4.75	7	-7
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7	-7
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	25.483	7	-7
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.0	7	-7
To Qualify	L	Croatia	no	11.5	8	-8
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9	-9
Reach QF		Canada	yes	3.324	9	-9
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.076	10	-10
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.4	10	-10
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.65	11	-11
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	8.917	12	-12
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13	-13
Reach QF		France	no	2.6	13	-13
Reach SF		Norway	yes	2.807	14	-14
Reach SF		Brazil	yes	2.84	15	-15
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.12	15	-15
Reach QF		Portugal	yes	3.0	16	-16
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	11.632	19	-19
Reach R16		Switzerland	no	2.82	21	-21
Reach R16		Austria	yes	4.879	21	-21
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.0	22	-22
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.0	24	-24
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.383	24	-24
Reach QF		Spain	no	2.892	24	-24
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.5	25	-25
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.996	25	-25
Reach SF		Argentina	no	2.568	27	-27
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.348	28	-28
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	16.568	30	-30
Winner		Brazil		13.951	31	-31
Reach R16		Algeria	yes	2.809	32	-32
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.298	33	-33
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.416	34	-34
Group Last	D	Australia		14.9	36	-36
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37	-37
Winner		Germany		18.803	38	-38
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.35	44	-44
Reach QF		United States	yes	2.952	56	-56
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113	-113
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.044	139	-139
		Realised (settled)			2139	-208

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Returned	Available	of which borrowed
Before	6.786	886	2477	1772	545	250
After	6.731	838	2519	1929	660	250
Change	-0.055	-48	42	157	115	0

Day 33

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Reach Final		Spain	no	1.68	23
Winner		Argentina		5.50	7
Reach Final		England	no	2.18	6
Winner		Spain		4.50	2

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake	Net
Reach Final		France	no	2.114	151
Reach Final		Spain	no	1.607	87
Reach Final		France	yes	1.72	46
Winner		England		9.269	32
Winner		Spain		7.366	32
Winner		Argentina		6.594	18
Reach Final		Argentina	yes	2.523	17
Reach Final		Argentina	no	1.553	14
Reach Final		England	yes	2.88	8
Reach Final		Spain	yes	4.2	7
Reach Final		England	no	2.18	6
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45	166
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	3.728	47	128
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92	88
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	2.064	76	81
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.0	30	60
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.701	81	57
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.175	26	57
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	70	52
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.601	78	47
Reach R16		Morocco	yes	2.507	30	45
Reach SF		Morocco	no	1.25	169	42
Reach QF		Norway	yes	3.089	19	40
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	4.657	7	26
Reach QF		Brazil	no	2.95	9	18
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.654	25	16
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.894	13	12
Reach R16		Ivory Coast	no	1.54	22	12
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11	10
Reach QF		Argentina	yes	1.24	39	9
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.25	7	9
Reach R16		Ghana	no	1.37	23	9
Reach QF		United States	no	2.04	6	6
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.62	10	6
Reach R16		DR Congo	yes	7.67	1	-1
Reach R16		Belgium	no	2.52	1	-1
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.05	1	-1
Reach QF		South Korea	yes	26.0	1	-1
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.0	2	-2
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Algeria	yes	12.93	2	-2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.0	2	-2
Reach SF		Sweden	yes	33.66	2	-2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.0	2	-2
Winner		Switzerland		101.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Sweden	yes	15.9	2	-2
Reach QF		Egypt	yes	5.92	2	-2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.5	2	-2
Reach Final		Norway	yes	6.46	2	-2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.0	2	-2
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.0	3	-3
Reach SF		England	no	2.72	3	-3
Winner		Netherlands		25.0	3	-3
Reach Final		Switzerland	yes	34.0	4	-4
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.0	4	-4
Reach SF		Morocco	yes	4.2	4	-4
Reach QF		Belgium	no	1.91	4	-4
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.0	4	-4
Reach QF		Paraguay	yes	11.73	4	-4
Reach R16		Senegal	yes	2.38	5	-5
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.9	5	-5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.0	5	-5
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.0	5	-5
Reach Final		Brazil	yes	5.23	5	-5
Reach R16		Ghana	yes	4.442	5	-5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.0	5	-5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.1	5	-5
Reach R16		Australia	yes	2.75	6	-6
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.64	6	-6
Reach R16		Cape Verde	yes	13.02	6	-6
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.45	6	-6
Reach SF		Paraguay	yes	32.333	6	-6
Winner		Belgium		68.143	7	-7
Reach R16		Colombia	no	4.75	7	-7
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7	-7
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	25.483	7	-7
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.0	7	-7
To Qualify	L	Croatia	no	11.5	8	-8
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9	-9
Reach QF		Canada	yes	3.324	9	-9
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.076	10	-10
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.4	10	-10
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.65	11	-11
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	8.917	12	-12
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13	-13
Reach QF		France	no	2.6	13	-13
Reach SF		Norway	yes	2.807	14	-14
Reach SF		Brazil	yes	2.84	15	-15
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.12	15	-15
Reach QF		Portugal	yes	3.0	16	-16
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	11.632	19	-19
Reach R16		Switzerland	no	2.82	21	-21
Reach R16		Austria	yes	4.879	21	-21
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.0	22	-22
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.0	24	-24
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.383	24	-24
Reach QF		Spain	no	2.892	24	-24
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.5	25	-25
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.996	25	-25
Reach SF		Argentina	no	2.568	27	-27
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.348	28	-28
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	16.568	30	-30
Winner		Brazil		13.951	31	-31
Reach R16		Algeria	yes	2.809	32	-32
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.298	33	-33
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.416	34	-34
Group Last	D	Australia		14.9	36	-36
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37	-37
Winner		Germany		18.803	38	-38
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.35	44	-44
Reach QF		United States	yes	2.952	56	-56
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113	-113
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.044	139	-139
		Realised (settled)			2139	-208

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Returned	Available	of which borrowed
Before	6.731	838	2519	1929	660	250
After	6.735	841	2557	1929	622	250
Change	0.004	3	38	0	-38	0

Day 34

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Reach Final		Spain	no	1.68	12
Reach Final		England	no	2.18	7
Winner		Argentina		5.50	4
Winner		England		4.60	1

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake	Net
Reach Final		France	no	2.114	151
Reach Final		Spain	no	1.616	99
Reach Final		France	yes	1.72	46
Winner		England		9.127	33
Winner		Spain		7.366	32
Winner		Argentina		6.395	22
Reach Final		Argentina	yes	2.523	17
Reach Final		Argentina	no	1.553	14
Reach Final		England	no	2.18	13
Reach Final		England	yes	2.88	8
Reach Final		Spain	yes	4.2	7
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45	166
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	3.728	47	128
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92	88
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	2.064	76	81
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.0	30	60
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.701	81	57
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.175	26	57
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	70	52
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.601	78	47
Reach R16		Morocco	yes	2.507	30	45
Reach SF		Morocco	no	1.25	169	42
Reach QF		Norway	yes	3.089	19	40
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	4.657	7	26
Reach QF		Brazil	no	2.95	9	18
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.654	25	16
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.894	13	12
Reach R16		Ivory Coast	no	1.54	22	12
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11	10
Reach QF		Argentina	yes	1.24	39	9
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.25	7	9
Reach R16		Ghana	no	1.37	23	9
Reach QF		United States	no	2.04	6	6
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.62	10	6
Reach R16		DR Congo	yes	7.67	1	-1
Reach R16		Belgium	no	2.52	1	-1
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.05	1	-1
Reach QF		South Korea	yes	26.0	1	-1
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.0	2	-2
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Algeria	yes	12.93	2	-2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.0	2	-2
Reach SF		Sweden	yes	33.66	2	-2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.0	2	-2
Winner		Switzerland		101.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Sweden	yes	15.9	2	-2
Reach QF		Egypt	yes	5.92	2	-2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.5	2	-2
Reach Final		Norway	yes	6.46	2	-2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.0	2	-2
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.0	3	-3
Reach SF		England	no	2.72	3	-3
Winner		Netherlands		25.0	3	-3
Reach Final		Switzerland	yes	34.0	4	-4
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.0	4	-4
Reach SF		Morocco	yes	4.2	4	-4
Reach QF		Belgium	no	1.91	4	-4
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.0	4	-4
Reach QF		Paraguay	yes	11.73	4	-4
Reach R16		Senegal	yes	2.38	5	-5
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.9	5	-5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.0	5	-5
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.0	5	-5
Reach Final		Brazil	yes	5.23	5	-5
Reach R16		Ghana	yes	4.442	5	-5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.0	5	-5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.1	5	-5
Reach R16		Australia	yes	2.75	6	-6
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.64	6	-6
Reach R16		Cape Verde	yes	13.02	6	-6
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.45	6	-6
Reach SF		Paraguay	yes	32.333	6	-6
Winner		Belgium		68.143	7	-7
Reach R16		Colombia	no	4.75	7	-7
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7	-7
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	25.483	7	-7
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.0	7	-7
To Qualify	L	Croatia	no	11.5	8	-8
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9	-9
Reach QF		Canada	yes	3.324	9	-9
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.076	10	-10
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.4	10	-10
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.65	11	-11
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	8.917	12	-12
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13	-13
Reach QF		France	no	2.6	13	-13
Reach SF		Norway	yes	2.807	14	-14
Reach SF		Brazil	yes	2.84	15	-15
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.12	15	-15
Reach QF		Portugal	yes	3.0	16	-16
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	11.632	19	-19
Reach R16		Switzerland	no	2.82	21	-21
Reach R16		Austria	yes	4.879	21	-21
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.0	22	-22
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.0	24	-24
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.383	24	-24
Reach QF		Spain	no	2.892	24	-24
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.5	25	-25
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.996	25	-25
Reach SF		Argentina	no	2.568	27	-27
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.348	28	-28
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	16.568	30	-30
Winner		Brazil		13.951	31	-31
Reach R16		Algeria	yes	2.809	32	-32
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.298	33	-33
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.416	34	-34
Group Last	D	Australia		14.9	36	-36
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37	-37
Winner		Germany		18.803	38	-38
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.35	44	-44
Reach QF		United States	yes	2.952	56	-56
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113	-113
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.044	139	-139
		Realised (settled)			2139	-208

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Returned	Available	of which borrowed
Before	6.735	841	2557	1929	622	250
After	6.738	844	2581	1929	598	250
Change	0.003	3	24	0	-24	0

The bankroll so far

Best and worst from here

	Most likely ★	Best case ▲	Worst case ▼
France v Spain	France	Spain	France
England v Argentina	England	England	England
Champion	France	England	France
Final bankroll	631 units	1,042 units	631 units
vs today	-158	+253	-158
Model probability	15.12%	11.40%	15.12%

What we’re rooting for

The full range of outcomes

Day 35

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Winner		Argentina		5.25	8

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake	Net
Winner		England		9.127	33
Winner		Spain		7.366	32
Winner		Argentina		6.09	30
Reach Final		Argentina	yes	2.523	17
Reach Final		Argentina	no	1.553	14
Reach Final		England	no	2.18	13
Reach Final		England	yes	2.88	8
Reach Final		France	no	2.114	151	168
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45	166
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	3.728	47	128
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92	88
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	2.064	76	81
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.0	30	60
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.701	81	57
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.175	26	57
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	70	52
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.601	78	47
Reach R16		Morocco	yes	2.507	30	45
Reach SF		Morocco	no	1.25	169	42
Reach QF		Norway	yes	3.089	19	40
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	4.657	7	26
Reach Final		Spain	yes	4.2	7	22
Reach QF		Brazil	no	2.95	9	18
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.654	25	16
Reach R16		Ivory Coast	no	1.54	22	12
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.894	13	12
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11	10
Reach R16		Ghana	no	1.37	23	9
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.25	7	9
Reach QF		Argentina	yes	1.24	39	9
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.62	10	6
Reach QF		United States	no	2.04	6	6
Reach R16		DR Congo	yes	7.67	1	-1
Reach QF		South Korea	yes	26.0	1	-1
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.05	1	-1
Reach R16		Belgium	no	2.52	1	-1
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.0	2	-2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Algeria	yes	12.93	2	-2
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.0	2	-2
Winner		Switzerland		101.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.0	2	-2
Reach SF		Sweden	yes	33.66	2	-2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Egypt	yes	5.92	2	-2
Reach QF		Sweden	yes	15.9	2	-2
Reach Final		Norway	yes	6.46	2	-2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.5	2	-2
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.0	3	-3
Winner		Netherlands		25.0	3	-3
Reach SF		England	no	2.72	3	-3
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.0	4	-4
Reach QF		Belgium	no	1.91	4	-4
Reach QF		Paraguay	yes	11.73	4	-4
Reach Final		Switzerland	yes	34.0	4	-4
Reach SF		Morocco	yes	4.2	4	-4
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.0	4	-4
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.0	5	-5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.1	5	-5
Reach R16		Senegal	yes	2.38	5	-5
Reach R16		Ghana	yes	4.442	5	-5
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.9	5	-5
Reach Final		Brazil	yes	5.23	5	-5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.0	5	-5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.0	5	-5
Reach R16		Australia	yes	2.75	6	-6
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.45	6	-6
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.64	6	-6
Reach R16		Cape Verde	yes	13.02	6	-6
Reach SF		Paraguay	yes	32.333	6	-6
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	25.483	7	-7
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.0	7	-7
Winner		Belgium		68.143	7	-7
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7	-7
Reach R16		Colombia	no	4.75	7	-7
To Qualify	L	Croatia	no	11.5	8	-8
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9	-9
Reach QF		Canada	yes	3.324	9	-9
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.4	10	-10
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.076	10	-10
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.65	11	-11
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	8.917	12	-12
Reach QF		France	no	2.6	13	-13
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13	-13
Reach SF		Norway	yes	2.807	14	-14
Reach SF		Brazil	yes	2.84	15	-15
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.12	15	-15
Reach QF		Portugal	yes	3.0	16	-16
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	11.632	19	-19
Reach R16		Switzerland	no	2.82	21	-21
Reach R16		Austria	yes	4.879	21	-21
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.0	22	-22
Reach QF		Spain	no	2.892	24	-24
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.383	24	-24
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.0	24	-24
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.996	25	-25
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.5	25	-25
Reach SF		Argentina	no	2.568	27	-27
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.348	28	-28
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	16.568	30	-30
Winner		Brazil		13.951	31	-31
Reach R16		Algeria	yes	2.809	32	-32
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.298	33	-33
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.416	34	-34
Group Last	D	Australia		14.9	36	-36
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37	-37
Winner		Germany		18.803	38	-38
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.35	44	-44
Reach Final		France	yes	1.72	46	-46
Reach QF		United States	yes	2.952	56	-56
Reach Final		Spain	no	1.616	99	-99
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113	-113
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.044	139	-139
		Realised (settled)			2442	-163

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Returned	Available	of which borrowed
Before	6.738	844	2581	1929	598	250
After	6.893	986	2589	2277	938	250
Change	0.155	142	8	348	340	0

Day 36

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Winner		Argentina		2.37	8

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake	Net
Winner		Argentina		5.307	38
Winner		Spain		7.366	32
Reach Final		France	no	2.114	151	168
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45	166
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	3.728	47	128
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92	88
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	2.064	76	81
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.0	30	60
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.175	26	57
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.701	81	57
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	70	52
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.601	78	47
Reach R16		Morocco	yes	2.507	30	45
Reach SF		Morocco	no	1.25	169	42
Reach QF		Norway	yes	3.089	19	40
Reach Final		Argentina	yes	2.523	17	26
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	4.657	7	26
Reach Final		Spain	yes	4.2	7	22
Reach QF		Brazil	no	2.95	9	18
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.654	25	16
Reach Final		England	no	2.18	13	15
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.894	13	12
Reach R16		Ivory Coast	no	1.54	22	12
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11	10
Reach R16		Ghana	no	1.37	23	9
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.25	7	9
Reach QF		Argentina	yes	1.24	39	9
Reach QF		United States	no	2.04	6	6
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.62	10	6
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.05	1	-1
Reach QF		South Korea	yes	26.0	1	-1
Reach R16		DR Congo	yes	7.67	1	-1
Reach R16		Belgium	no	2.52	1	-1
Reach SF		Sweden	yes	33.66	2	-2
Winner		Switzerland		101.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.0	2	-2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.0	2	-2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.5	2	-2
Reach Final		Norway	yes	6.46	2	-2
Reach QF		Sweden	yes	15.9	2	-2
Reach QF		Egypt	yes	5.92	2	-2
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Algeria	yes	12.93	2	-2
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.0	2	-2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.0	2	-2
Winner		Netherlands		25.0	3	-3
Reach SF		England	no	2.72	3	-3
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.0	3	-3
Reach QF		Belgium	no	1.91	4	-4
Reach Final		Switzerland	yes	34.0	4	-4
Reach QF		Paraguay	yes	11.73	4	-4
Reach SF		Morocco	yes	4.2	4	-4
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.0	4	-4
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.0	4	-4
Reach R16		Ghana	yes	4.442	5	-5
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.9	5	-5
Reach R16		Senegal	yes	2.38	5	-5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.0	5	-5
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.0	5	-5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.0	5	-5
Reach Final		Brazil	yes	5.23	5	-5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.1	5	-5
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.64	6	-6
Reach SF		Paraguay	yes	32.333	6	-6
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.45	6	-6
Reach R16		Australia	yes	2.75	6	-6
Reach R16		Cape Verde	yes	13.02	6	-6
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7	-7
Winner		Belgium		68.143	7	-7
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.0	7	-7
Reach R16		Colombia	no	4.75	7	-7
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	25.483	7	-7
To Qualify	L	Croatia	no	11.5	8	-8
Reach Final		England	yes	2.88	8	-8
Reach QF		Canada	yes	3.324	9	-9
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9	-9
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.4	10	-10
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.076	10	-10
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.65	11	-11
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	8.917	12	-12
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13	-13
Reach QF		France	no	2.6	13	-13
Reach Final		Argentina	no	1.553	14	-14
Reach SF		Norway	yes	2.807	14	-14
Reach SF		Brazil	yes	2.84	15	-15
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.12	15	-15
Reach QF		Portugal	yes	3.0	16	-16
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	11.632	19	-19
Reach R16		Switzerland	no	2.82	21	-21
Reach R16		Austria	yes	4.879	21	-21
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.0	22	-22
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.383	24	-24
Reach QF		Spain	no	2.892	24	-24
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.0	24	-24
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.5	25	-25
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.996	25	-25
Reach SF		Argentina	no	2.568	27	-27
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.348	28	-28
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	16.568	30	-30
Winner		Brazil		13.951	31	-31
Reach R16		Algeria	yes	2.809	32	-32
Winner		England		9.127	33	-33
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.298	33	-33
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.416	34	-34
Group Last	D	Australia		14.9	36	-36
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37	-37
Winner		Germany		18.803	38	-38
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.35	44	-44
Reach Final		France	yes	1.72	46	-46
Reach QF		United States	yes	2.952	56	-56
Reach Final		Spain	no	1.616	99	-99
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113	-113
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.044	139	-139
		Realised (settled)			2527	-177

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Returned	Available	of which borrowed
Before	6.893	986	2589	2277	938	250
After	6.880	972	2597	2348	1001	250
Change	-0.014	-14	8	71	63	0

Day 37

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Winner		Argentina		2.38	5

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake	Net
Winner		Argentina		4.967	43
Winner		Spain		7.366	32
Reach Final		France	no	2.114	151	168
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45	166
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	3.728	47	128
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92	88
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	2.064	76	81
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.0	30	60
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.175	26	57
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.701	81	57
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	70	52
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.601	78	47
Reach R16		Morocco	yes	2.507	30	45
Reach SF		Morocco	no	1.25	169	42
Reach QF		Norway	yes	3.089	19	40
Reach Final		Argentina	yes	2.523	17	26
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	4.657	7	26
Reach Final		Spain	yes	4.2	7	22
Reach QF		Brazil	no	2.95	9	18
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.654	25	16
Reach Final		England	no	2.18	13	15
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.894	13	12
Reach R16		Ivory Coast	no	1.54	22	12
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11	10
Reach R16		Ghana	no	1.37	23	9
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.25	7	9
Reach QF		Argentina	yes	1.24	39	9
Reach QF		United States	no	2.04	6	6
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.62	10	6
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.05	1	-1
Reach QF		South Korea	yes	26.0	1	-1
Reach R16		DR Congo	yes	7.67	1	-1
Reach R16		Belgium	no	2.52	1	-1
Reach SF		Sweden	yes	33.66	2	-2
Winner		Switzerland		101.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.0	2	-2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.0	2	-2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.5	2	-2
Reach Final		Norway	yes	6.46	2	-2
Reach QF		Sweden	yes	15.9	2	-2
Reach QF		Egypt	yes	5.92	2	-2
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Algeria	yes	12.93	2	-2
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.0	2	-2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.0	2	-2
Winner		Netherlands		25.0	3	-3
Reach SF		England	no	2.72	3	-3
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.0	3	-3
Reach QF		Belgium	no	1.91	4	-4
Reach Final		Switzerland	yes	34.0	4	-4
Reach QF		Paraguay	yes	11.73	4	-4
Reach SF		Morocco	yes	4.2	4	-4
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.0	4	-4
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.0	4	-4
Reach R16		Ghana	yes	4.442	5	-5
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.9	5	-5
Reach R16		Senegal	yes	2.38	5	-5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.0	5	-5
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.0	5	-5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.0	5	-5
Reach Final		Brazil	yes	5.23	5	-5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.1	5	-5
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.64	6	-6
Reach SF		Paraguay	yes	32.333	6	-6
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.45	6	-6
Reach R16		Australia	yes	2.75	6	-6
Reach R16		Cape Verde	yes	13.02	6	-6
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7	-7
Winner		Belgium		68.143	7	-7
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.0	7	-7
Reach R16		Colombia	no	4.75	7	-7
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	25.483	7	-7
To Qualify	L	Croatia	no	11.5	8	-8
Reach Final		England	yes	2.88	8	-8
Reach QF		Canada	yes	3.324	9	-9
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9	-9
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.4	10	-10
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.076	10	-10
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.65	11	-11
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	8.917	12	-12
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13	-13
Reach QF		France	no	2.6	13	-13
Reach Final		Argentina	no	1.553	14	-14
Reach SF		Norway	yes	2.807	14	-14
Reach SF		Brazil	yes	2.84	15	-15
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.12	15	-15
Reach QF		Portugal	yes	3.0	16	-16
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	11.632	19	-19
Reach R16		Switzerland	no	2.82	21	-21
Reach R16		Austria	yes	4.879	21	-21
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.0	22	-22
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.383	24	-24
Reach QF		Spain	no	2.892	24	-24
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.0	24	-24
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.5	25	-25
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.996	25	-25
Reach SF		Argentina	no	2.568	27	-27
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.348	28	-28
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	16.568	30	-30
Winner		Brazil		13.951	31	-31
Reach R16		Algeria	yes	2.809	32	-32
Winner		England		9.127	33	-33
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.298	33	-33
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.416	34	-34
Group Last	D	Australia		14.9	36	-36
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37	-37
Winner		Germany		18.803	38	-38
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.35	44	-44
Reach Final		France	yes	1.72	46	-46
Reach QF		United States	yes	2.952	56	-56
Reach Final		Spain	no	1.616	99	-99
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113	-113
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.044	139	-139
		Realised (settled)			2527	-177

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Returned	Available	of which borrowed
Before	6.88	972	2597	2348	1001	250
After	6.88	973	2602	2348	996	250
Change	0.00	1	5	0	-5	0

Day 38

New bets

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake
Winner		Argentina		2.41	6

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake	Net
Winner		Argentina		4.653	49
Winner		Spain		7.366	32
Reach Final		France	no	2.114	151	168
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45	166
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	3.728	47	128
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92	88
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	2.064	76	81
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.0	30	60
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.175	26	57
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.701	81	57
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	70	52
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.601	78	47
Reach R16		Morocco	yes	2.507	30	45
Reach SF		Morocco	no	1.25	169	42
Reach QF		Norway	yes	3.089	19	40
Reach Final		Argentina	yes	2.523	17	26
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	4.657	7	26
Reach Final		Spain	yes	4.2	7	22
Reach QF		Brazil	no	2.95	9	18
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.654	25	16
Reach Final		England	no	2.18	13	15
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.894	13	12
Reach R16		Ivory Coast	no	1.54	22	12
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11	10
Reach R16		Ghana	no	1.37	23	9
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.25	7	9
Reach QF		Argentina	yes	1.24	39	9
Reach QF		United States	no	2.04	6	6
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.62	10	6
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.05	1	-1
Reach QF		South Korea	yes	26.0	1	-1
Reach R16		DR Congo	yes	7.67	1	-1
Reach R16		Belgium	no	2.52	1	-1
Reach SF		Sweden	yes	33.66	2	-2
Winner		Switzerland		101.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.0	2	-2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.0	2	-2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.5	2	-2
Reach Final		Norway	yes	6.46	2	-2
Reach QF		Sweden	yes	15.9	2	-2
Reach QF		Egypt	yes	5.92	2	-2
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Algeria	yes	12.93	2	-2
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.0	2	-2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.0	2	-2
Winner		Netherlands		25.0	3	-3
Reach SF		England	no	2.72	3	-3
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.0	3	-3
Reach QF		Belgium	no	1.91	4	-4
Reach Final		Switzerland	yes	34.0	4	-4
Reach QF		Paraguay	yes	11.73	4	-4
Reach SF		Morocco	yes	4.2	4	-4
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.0	4	-4
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.0	4	-4
Reach R16		Ghana	yes	4.442	5	-5
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.9	5	-5
Reach R16		Senegal	yes	2.38	5	-5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.0	5	-5
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.0	5	-5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.0	5	-5
Reach Final		Brazil	yes	5.23	5	-5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.1	5	-5
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.64	6	-6
Reach SF		Paraguay	yes	32.333	6	-6
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.45	6	-6
Reach R16		Australia	yes	2.75	6	-6
Reach R16		Cape Verde	yes	13.02	6	-6
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7	-7
Winner		Belgium		68.143	7	-7
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.0	7	-7
Reach R16		Colombia	no	4.75	7	-7
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	25.483	7	-7
To Qualify	L	Croatia	no	11.5	8	-8
Reach Final		England	yes	2.88	8	-8
Reach QF		Canada	yes	3.324	9	-9
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9	-9
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.4	10	-10
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.076	10	-10
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.65	11	-11
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	8.917	12	-12
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13	-13
Reach QF		France	no	2.6	13	-13
Reach Final		Argentina	no	1.553	14	-14
Reach SF		Norway	yes	2.807	14	-14
Reach SF		Brazil	yes	2.84	15	-15
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.12	15	-15
Reach QF		Portugal	yes	3.0	16	-16
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	11.632	19	-19
Reach R16		Switzerland	no	2.82	21	-21
Reach R16		Austria	yes	4.879	21	-21
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.0	22	-22
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.383	24	-24
Reach QF		Spain	no	2.892	24	-24
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.0	24	-24
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.5	25	-25
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.996	25	-25
Reach SF		Argentina	no	2.568	27	-27
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.348	28	-28
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	16.568	30	-30
Winner		Brazil		13.951	31	-31
Reach R16		Algeria	yes	2.809	32	-32
Winner		England		9.127	33	-33
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.298	33	-33
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.416	34	-34
Group Last	D	Australia		14.9	36	-36
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37	-37
Winner		Germany		18.803	38	-38
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.35	44	-44
Reach Final		France	yes	1.72	46	-46
Reach QF		United States	yes	2.952	56	-56
Reach Final		Spain	no	1.616	99	-99
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113	-113
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.044	139	-139
		Realised (settled)			2527	-177

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Returned	Available	of which borrowed
Before	6.88	973	2602	2348	996	250
After	6.88	973	2608	2348	990	250
Change	0.00	0	6	0	-6	0

Day 39

The final is here: Spain against Argentina, and the portfolio holds both sides, 49 units on Argentina and 32 on Spain, so the hedge is close to flat: Spain lifts the campaign to 976, Argentina to 968. No new bets today, which makes the portfolio below the one we finish on. Both runouts land below the 1,000 we started with, so this campaign ends down whatever happens tonight. Only the size of the loss is still open.

Full Portfolio

Market	Group	Selection	Side	Odds	Stake	Net
Winner		Argentina		4.653	49
Winner		Spain		7.366	32
Reach Final		France	no	2.114	151	168
Group Last	A	Czechia		4.679	45	166
Reach QF		Switzerland	yes	3.728	47	128
Reach R16		United States	yes	1.953	92	88
Reach SF		Argentina	yes	2.064	76	81
Group Last	D	Türkiye		3.0	30	60
Reach QF		Belgium	yes	3.175	26	57
Reach R16		Belgium	yes	1.701	81	57
Reach R16		Türkiye	no	1.74	70	52
Reach R16		Switzerland	yes	1.601	78	47
Reach R16		Morocco	yes	2.507	30	45
Reach SF		Morocco	no	1.25	169	42
Reach QF		Norway	yes	3.089	19	40
Reach Final		Argentina	yes	2.523	17	26
Reach R16		Paraguay	yes	4.657	7	26
Reach Final		Spain	yes	4.2	7	22
Reach QF		Brazil	no	2.95	9	18
Reach R16		Japan	no	1.654	25	16
Reach Final		England	no	2.18	13	15
Reach R16		Canada	yes	1.894	13	12
Reach R16		Ivory Coast	no	1.54	22	12
Reach R16		Colombia	yes	1.909	11	10
Reach R16		Ghana	no	1.37	23	9
Group Last	H	Saudi Arabia		2.25	7	9
Reach QF		Argentina	yes	1.24	39	9
Reach QF		United States	no	2.04	6	6
To Qualify	H	Saudi Arabia	no	1.62	10	6
To Qualify	L	Ghana	no	4.05	1	-1
Reach QF		South Korea	yes	26.0	1	-1
Reach R16		DR Congo	yes	7.67	1	-1
Reach R16		Belgium	no	2.52	1	-1
Reach SF		Sweden	yes	33.66	2	-2
Winner		Switzerland		101.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Türkiye	yes	5.0	2	-2
Reach SF		Ecuador	yes	21.0	2	-2
Reach SF		Netherlands	yes	5.5	2	-2
Reach Final		Norway	yes	6.46	2	-2
Reach QF		Sweden	yes	15.9	2	-2
Reach QF		Egypt	yes	5.92	2	-2
Group Last	G	Belgium		51.0	2	-2
Reach QF		Algeria	yes	12.93	2	-2
Group Winner	H	Saudi Arabia		41.0	2	-2
To Qualify	C	Haiti	yes	8.0	2	-2
Winner		Netherlands		25.0	3	-3
Reach SF		England	no	2.72	3	-3
Group Last	K	Portugal		51.0	3	-3
Reach QF		Belgium	no	1.91	4	-4
Reach Final		Switzerland	yes	34.0	4	-4
Reach QF		Paraguay	yes	11.73	4	-4
Reach SF		Morocco	yes	4.2	4	-4
Reach Final		Netherlands	yes	11.0	4	-4
Reach SF		Austria	yes	19.0	4	-4
Reach R16		Ghana	yes	4.442	5	-5
Reach QF		Ecuador	yes	6.9	5	-5
Reach R16		Senegal	yes	2.38	5	-5
Group Last	C	Scotland		7.0	5	-5
Group Last	E	Ivory Coast		100.0	5	-5
Group Winner	E	Ivory Coast		8.0	5	-5
Reach Final		Brazil	yes	5.23	5	-5
Group Last	C	Morocco		19.1	5	-5
Group Winner	C	Scotland		12.64	6	-6
Reach SF		Paraguay	yes	32.333	6	-6
Reach R16		Czechia	yes	3.45	6	-6
Reach R16		Australia	yes	2.75	6	-6
Reach R16		Cape Verde	yes	13.02	6	-6
Reach QF		Czechia	yes	11.571	7	-7
Winner		Belgium		68.143	7	-7
Reach QF		Austria	yes	8.0	7	-7
Reach R16		Colombia	no	4.75	7	-7
Reach Final		Belgium	yes	25.483	7	-7
To Qualify	L	Croatia	no	11.5	8	-8
Reach Final		England	yes	2.88	8	-8
Reach QF		Canada	yes	3.324	9	-9
Group Last	D	United States		56.317	9	-9
Group Winner	L	Panama		44.4	10	-10
Reach SF		Belgium	yes	7.076	10	-10
Reach QF		Germany	yes	2.65	11	-11
Reach SF		Colombia	yes	8.917	12	-12
Group Last	L	Ghana		56.346	13	-13
Reach QF		France	no	2.6	13	-13
Reach Final		Argentina	no	1.553	14	-14
Reach SF		Norway	yes	2.807	14	-14
Reach SF		Brazil	yes	2.84	15	-15
To Qualify	J	Jordan	yes	14.12	15	-15
Reach QF		Portugal	yes	3.0	16	-16
Reach SF		Switzerland	yes	11.632	19	-19
Reach R16		Switzerland	no	2.82	21	-21
Reach R16		Austria	yes	4.879	21	-21
Group Last	A	South Korea		51.0	22	-22
Reach SF		Germany	yes	4.383	24	-24
Reach QF		Spain	no	2.892	24	-24
Reach Final		Germany	yes	8.0	24	-24
Group Last	D	Paraguay		3.5	25	-25
Reach R16		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	3.996	25	-25
Reach SF		Argentina	no	2.568	27	-27
Reach QF		Netherlands	yes	2.348	28	-28
Reach QF		Bosnia and Herzegovina	yes	16.568	30	-30
Winner		Brazil		13.951	31	-31
Reach R16		Algeria	yes	2.809	32	-32
Winner		England		9.127	33	-33
Group Last	H	Uruguay		17.298	33	-33
Reach QF		Colombia	yes	3.416	34	-34
Group Last	D	Australia		14.9	36	-36
Reach R16		Ecuador	yes	2.838	37	-37
Winner		Germany		18.803	38	-38
Reach R16		Türkiye	yes	2.35	44	-44
Reach Final		France	yes	1.72	46	-46
Reach QF		United States	yes	2.952	56	-56
Reach Final		Spain	no	1.616	99	-99
Group Last	A	South Africa		1.757	113	-113
Reach R16		Morocco	no	2.044	139	-139
		Realised (settled)			2527	-177

Bankroll

	Exp Log	Exp Real	Staked	Returned	Available	of which borrowed
Before	6.88	973	2608	2348	990	250
After	6.88	973	2608	2348	990	250
Change	-0.00	0	0	0	0	0

The bankroll so far

Best and worst from here

	Most likely ★	Best case ▲	Worst case ▼
Spain v Argentina	Spain	Spain	Argentina
Final bankroll	976 units	976 units	968 units
vs today	+155	+155	+147
Model probability	57.52%	57.52%	42.48%

What we’re rooting for

The full range of outcomes